Just a Thought...
We accept the reality of the world with which we are presented.- The Truman Show
Okay, so let's say I completely buy Nick Bostrom's argument that we're probably living in a computer simulation (more here and here). What is our reality meant to simulate?
If speculation were a mountain, this would be the pinnacle. No answer to this question is capable of being tested. But I ask this question because, presumably, if some higher reality is going to go to all the trouble to simulate our reality, I'd guess that they'd have something that they'd like to learn from this reality.
The proposition that is being tested wouldn't have to be something that we consider weird. There's The Truman Show truism – we accept the reality we're presented. Something that might be completely weird to the architechs of this simulation might be completely mundane to us. Our Fermi paradox might be that weird thing. A universe teeming with different intelligent species might like to see how a universe with one intelligent species would develop.
Or it could be something much less drastic. Maybe we're exactly the same as them, with some small tweak of historical details. Our successful Moon program seems like an anachronism. What if some detail like that were added - just to see what difference it would make.
UPDATE:
Don't miss George Dvorsky's explanation of the downer side of Bostrum's theory. By the way, I've got a third, less-depressing possibility than "damned if we're a simulation/damned if we're not."
So, Bostrom would have us choose one of the three...(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);
(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
Well, I definitely don't buy #2. It seems very likely that any post-Singularity civ would run many, many simulations of its past (or even very weird variations on reality). Alternate history is already an important genre of fiction in this reality.
So I guess I'm left on the fence between #1 and #3. I don't really like either - particularly if Bostrum is right about our simulation being terminated at the point of Singularity. It's death by funnel (#1) or reboot (#3). It's the Fermi Paradox meeting The Doomsday Argument in The Matrix.
Anyway, let's throw out #2 because it is implausible and let's discount #1 because...well I'd rather not believe it. Call it hope. So, I'm left with #3 and Bostrom's rather depressing thought that a post-Singularity civilization might terminate our simulation at the moment of Singularity.
But wait. I think Bostrom is thinking pre-Singularity. Why would a post-Singularity civilization that's running a simulation terminate a civilization at the point of Singularity? Lack of computing power? Naahhh.
Why not bring the simulated minds into their world at that point? In fact, wouldn't that be an efficient way to keep the exponential progress of a Singularity going? A post-Singularity civilization could literally bring more and more post-Singularity minds into the "real" world via full simulations of other realities up to the point of their Singularity.
UPDATE 2:
Commenter "The Chad" reminds us that the secret to all this (life, the universe, and everything) is...42.
From Wikipedia's entry on "The Answer to Life, Universe, and Everything:"
A joke [from the works of Douglas Adams] about the impossibility of understanding the real meaning of the universe first appeared in Fit the Seventh of the radio series, in 1978. There it was stated:There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something more bizarrely inexplicable.There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
Okay, this is a "Choose the form of the Destructor" moment. Everybody, clear your minds! Don't think of anything!
Comments
Remember your Accelerando - the computers spent a lot of effort creating historical constructs so that they could create a "brain" exactly like an historical or fictional figure. For example, creating a 16th century Europe to come up with a William Shakespeare AI. The test - does the AI write the same works?
Kind of cool, and scary, and very, very interesting. I was disappointed by the quality of the comments on the NYT site, though.
Posted by: Donut
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August 15, 2007 02:14 PM
Well, arguing about whether we are living in a simulated universe or not seems purely academic, because if the simulation is any good, then from our perspective, we cannot actually detect the fact.
Having written a cycle-accurate instruction-level simulator, I know that the programs that run inside the simulator have no means to detect that they are running in a simulation as opposed to an actual hardware device.
If the "designers" of the simulation we are supposedly running in have done a good enough job, then the hypothesis becomes unfalsifiable--which makes it unscientific.
This might be a fairly interesting philosophical question, but it isn't one of science--unless we can conceivably come up with experiments that exploit the possibility that maybe the designers of the simulation didn't do a good job. If they did, we can prove nothing, of course.
But then the question is, even if we are able to devise experiments that would have different outcome in a simulated universe than the "real" universe, how can we determine what the "real" outcome should be, since we don't have the ground truth of the what "real" universe "should" do?
Posted by: D. Vision
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August 15, 2007 02:38 PM
This is just me, but if I designed an entire simulated world, I would want the inhabitants to be able to figure out that it's a simulation. I wouldn't want it to be easy -- no reason to ruin the suspense. Still, sooner or later I would want them to know the truth.
Alternatively, I might feel the need to get in there and reveal myself as the designer to some of the inhabitants. Especially if one of them was a simulation of me!
Sure, this is a philosophical discussion for now. That doesn't mean these questions will always be beyond the reach of science. Optimist that I am, I hold out hope that science will eventually get us to the truth about our place in the universe, or rather, the place of our universe in whatever it is that lies outside the universe.
Posted by: Phil Bowermaster
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August 15, 2007 03:58 PM
D. Vision:
I agree with everything you said, but this is still "cool, and scary, and very, very interesting."
Yeah, this falls into the realm of philosophy.
Posted by: Stephen Gordon
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August 15, 2007 03:59 PM
Phil:
You know, maybe I spoke too soon about there being no way to test this.
Maybe there's no way to test for this now, but later - who can say?
Maybe somewhere - in quantum weirdness perhaps - the seams of this universe/simulation lies waiting to be discovered.
Posted by: Stephen Gordon
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August 15, 2007 08:50 PM
The answer to these questions, to all of this is...
42
Posted by: The Chad
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August 15, 2007 09:26 PM
I wouldn't be to eager to toss the 2nd point in the rubbish (any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history).
David Brin wrote a very interesting piece of online fiction called "Stones of Significance" which ponders this very issue. In it, the central debate is the rights of sentient beings. If your simulation is sentient, certain simulations might be considered a violation of their rights, cruel and inhuman punishment, etc.
What responsibilities would an advanced civilization decide a simulation creator would owe to his creations - continuity of existence ?, rule of law ?, freedom ?
I would think that the (probable) resultant burden of responsibility would greatly limit the widespread use of sentient sims.
Posted by: Acrinoe
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August 16, 2007 06:25 AM
There might also be an option of running models that would yield some or all of the data that we would look for from a simulation, but which would still not be "live." That is, there wouldn't be anybody "in there" convinced that he or she was living in a real world, but the model world could still yield interesting data. Between running models on one end and somehow being able to access or mathematically approximate what's going on in parallel universes (if any) on the other, simulations might not be that important to posthuman civilizations.
Posted by: Phil Bowermaster
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August 16, 2007 06:58 AM
BTW, I couldn't help myself. He just popped in there.
Posted by: Phil Bowermaster
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August 16, 2007 08:57 AM
What a coincidence, I just spent a heap of time writing about the same thing:
http://www.geocities.com/MotorCity/Factory/9051/blog/archive24.html#16/08/2007
Conclusion: They are simulating the effect of not having slorths.
Posted by: doctorpat
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August 17, 2007 05:28 AM