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September 30, 2004


So What if the Movie's No Good?

Well, it just doesn't get any better than this:

Next time you go to the movies, look out. If the popcorn vendors have read this article, your cup of popcorn might contain fewer pieces than it used to. That's because the pieces could each be up to twice the volume they were previously.

Popcorn kernels twice the size of what we're used to. Paul Quinn of Kutztown University in Pennsylvania and Joseph Both of the Stanford School of Medicine in California have figured out that cooking popcorn under lower pressure can make it pop up twice as big. Whatever those fine institutions are paying these two scholarly gentlement, they ought to double it.

Okay, now admit it. Don't you love living here in the future?


September 29, 2004


Stillness, Part V Chapter 47

She was sitting in her chair, doing her knitting, and listening to the preacher on the radio. She had been listening to the man for years. She had by now forgotten (or mostly forgotten) that she started out listening to him because she thought he was vaguely ridiculous, and she enjoyed chuckling at his inanity. Over time, familiarity had worn down her ironic detachment. Now she listened to him as intently, and with as much reverence, as she did Paul Harvey -- who came on right after the preacher, but on a different station.

He was in quite a state today. He wanted it clearly understood that the recent occurrence in what he described as the “hills near Colorado” was not the descending of the New Jerusalem as described at the end of the Book of Revelations. No, indeed. It was a blasphemous forgery, spun from hell to mock almighty God.

Myra was inclined to accept his authority on this matter, at least the part about the city not being the New Jerusalem. She had seen the city on the morning news, which provided a much clearer view than she could get from her front porch. It was pretty all right. Kind of a nice addition to the mountain. But it wasn’t nearly big enough to be the New Jerusalem. Anyway, it didn’t matter to her one way or the other. Though she liked this preacher very much, she honestly couldn’t see what he was getting so worked up about. Everyone on the TV was saying that it was a hoax, or that it had come from outer space. That made sense to Myra. She doubted that hell could really spin out anything so pleasant.

As she was thinking about this, something completely unexpected happened. There was a knock at the door. Myra got up to answer it (wondering who in the world it could be and hoping that it wasn’t the Jehovah’s Witnesses again.) She opened the door to find four children standing before her. Children she knew.

Oh, my, yes.

She knew them.

All but one of them, anyway. There was Judy, the black girl who was a Mongoloid besides. Myra remembered that she wasn’t supposed to use that word, though she couldn’t recall who had told her not to. But it was no matter. She couldn’t recall a good many things these days, and had decided not to let it bother her. Anyway, the girl was somehow not a Mongoloid anymore. Myra had never seen anything like that before. And here was Todd, also Mongoloid and deaf; only not any longer. And a boy that she didn’t know. And Grace, of course.

Baby Grace.

A year older. These were her children, children from the home. Changed somehow, but still the children she had known and cared for. For them to just show up like this at her doorstep, apparently healed of their infirmities…well if that wasn’t evidence of the New Heaven and the New Earth, then she didn’t know what would have been.

She let the children in. She sat them down and poured them all some lemonade. She wanted above all to hear what Grace had to say. Little Grace, who had been her heart’s darling. Just like her mother before her, who had been so dear to Myra. At some level, Myra knew that she was leaving out a considerable amount of unpleasantness by remembering things this way, but she wouldn’t have cared about that even if she could. It seemed that there was someone who was always trying to make her feel guilty about all those things that had happened. Someone who had blamed her for everything. But now she was free from that: she really and truly could not remember who her accuser was.

And she was glad.

Because she had loved Grace, there was no question of that. And her mother, what was that girl’s name? Geraldine? Jody? It didn’t matter. Myra knew that she had cared for the girl and tried her best to do right by her. It wasn’t her fault that things had come to a bad end. It wasn’t anyone’s fault.

Some things just couldn’t be prevented.

Try though she might to get Grace to talk to her, Myra found that it was Judy and Todd who seemed to have the most to say. Judy was always a talky girl. Never quite so much as…some of the others, perhaps, but still quite talky. Todd was a surprise, though. He never could talk before. He couldn’t even hear. And yet now here he was and he could. And he did.

Myra wished, in fact, that he would talk a little less, so that she could finally get a word in with Grace. But he just kept right on with a long and complicated story about how the Superintendent was trying to shut the home down. This did not come as a surprise to Myra, not at all. Superintendent Jepson (she had no difficulty remembering that name) had always been a small-minded and vindictive little man. She had struggled with him for years over the issue of allowing her children to attend classes at what he called his school.

Of course, it wasn’t his at all, was it?

It was a public facility; it belonged to the city. The children from the home had as much right to attend the Special Needs school as any other child in town. Only a heartless bureaucrat like Jepson would fail to acknowledge that, would lead successive school boards in barring her children from access. So it was no surprise to learn that he had taken the next step and was now moving to have the school closed.

Still, the details of it all were rather confusing. Myra tried to listen attentively to what the boy was telling her, but it was difficult. Her mind kept wandering onto other subjects, mostly memories of her time at the home. She hadn’t thought much about the home lately and now the memories were flooding back. It was odd, but it seemed that there were quite a few memories missing, even more than should have been missing, and this troubled her. Plus, the boy was hard to follow in his own right. His sentences were long and complicated. And he would occasionally use words that Myra couldn’t quite remember.

He reached the end of his explanation and then asked Myra whether they could count on her for her help and support.

She told him that they could, of course they could, no question about it. Whereupon the boy produced a checkbook and asked her to write out a check as he had described.

Myra stared at it blankly.

“I’m sorry, young man,” she said after a moment, “Todd. But why did you say you need me to write a check?”

“To make sure that the home’s funds aren’t confiscated,” said Todd. “Once we have the money in cash form, we’ll move it into an escrow account where it will be safe until a court can rule in our favor.”

Myra looked at the checkbook again. She didn’t know what to do.

“You see, Miss Baker,” said Judy, “it’s like Todd said. We’ve all undergone a new experimental treatment and that’s why we’re doing so well. Now that we’re cured, Mr. Jepson says that there’s no reason for the home to stay in operation. So he’s trying to get us shut down. We think he’s going to make a grab at the money in the home’s accounts, and we need to stop him from doing it.

“I see,” said Myra, and she did. She smiled at Judy. Why couldn’t the boy have put it so simply?

“All right, then,” she said, taking the checkbook and pen from Todd’s hands.

“Who do I make this out to?”

“Just make it out to Cash,” said Todd.

She looked at him, puzzled.

“It’s just to save time,” Judy explained. “That way, whoever can go to the bank first can cash it.”

“Fine,” said Myra, smiling once again. “And what was the amount again?”

“Eight thousand dollars,” said Judy, before Todd could speak.

Myra dutifully wrote out the check and detached it from the checkbook. She handed it to Todd. She made a note on the check stub and a full entry in the register in the back of the book. Just as she had done so many times before.

“My goodness,” she said, handing the checkbook back to Todd. “That must be the biggest check I ever wrote.”

“Thank you Miss Baker,” said Grace, who had been quiet to this point. She hugged Myra.

Myra was pleased.

“Why, you’re welcome, darling.” She ran a hand through Grace’s short blonde hair. “Such a big girl now, and so pretty. Your mother will be so happy to see you.”

Grace pulled back.

“My mother?”

A tremendous wave of sorrow washed over Myra. Why had she said that? What could she be thinking? The little girl’s mother — Jolene, that was her name — had been sent off to the state home years before. Myra remembered now. The flag; the disappearance. The girl’s unexpected rise and fall. The child would not be seeing her mother any time soon, might never see her. An echo sounded from somewhere deep in Myra’s obscured memory:

The children have borne enough hardship. Never build their hopes up with promises that can’t be kept.

“I just meant…” Myra began, but she didn’t know what to say. For a moment there, it had seemed that she was in a place where everything had been made right. And in such a place, surely the little girl would see her mother again. But it was just some trick of the mind.

“Miss Baker just meant that your mother would be real proud of you, Grace,” said Judy. “And we all know that.”

“Yes, that’s it,” said Myra.

Grace looked from Myra to Judy and back.

“Thank you for helping us,” said Grace.

Todd stood up, placing his empty glass on the coffee table.

“I’m afraid we have to be leaving, now,” he said. “Thank you very much for your help, and for the lemonade.”

“Leaving? But you only just got here. And I have so much I want to ask you.”

“I’m sorry, Miss Baker,” said Judy, also rising. “We’ll just have to come back and see you again. We can do that now that we’re better. But we have to get back to the home and take care of things.”

The children started for the door and Myra reluctantly followed. She opened the door for them. They said their good-byes and departed. Myra watched them as they left.

“Wait,” she called after them, just as they were making their way through the gate of her chain link fence. The children stopped and turned to face her.

“I just have to know one thing,” she said. She gestured in the general direction of the mountains. “Do you children have something to do with all this?” she asked.

Judy smiled.

“What do you mean, Miss Baker? What could we possibly have to do with that?”

Of course, Myra thought. Of course. What had ever possessed her to ask such a silly question?

“I mean. Does all this have something to do with you?”

“Mount Evans is a long way from here,” said Todd.

Myra nodded. Of course, of course.

But as they turned and walked away, she caught a glimpse of that quiet boy, then one she had never seen before.

He looked surprised that she had asked. Maybe even a little scared.


SpaceShipOne Going for the Prize

White Knight and SpaceShipOne

We are now 15 minutes from launch. I'm watching live here.

UPDATE: I've found much better bandwidth for watching this here.

UPDATE: 7:08 PT - They've taxied down to the end of the runway and are doing the preflight check.

UPDATE: 7:13 PT - White Knight is on the rollout.

UPDATE: 7:17 PT - White Knight is aloft.

UPDATE: 7:44 PT - Just announced: SpaceShipOne is expected to separate from White Knight around 8:15 PT..

UPDATE: SpaceShipOne is sporting the Virgin logo.

UPDATE: 8:12 PT: We have release. "He's in the climb."

UPDATE: He's in a roll. Hope he's okay. He's shut down engines.

UPDATE: 8:15 PT: Announcer is saying he made it. Was that a "victory roll?"

UPDATE: 8:19 PT: SpaceShipOne is reconfigured as a glider and is on the way back.

UPDATE: 8:34 PT: The announcers aren't acting like that was a victory roll. This guy wouldn't have done anything to add to the risk of the flight. If it's was a malfunction - and that seems likely - it might delay the second flight.

UPDATE: 8:36 PT: Touchdown! Mike Melville is safely on the ground. Now waiting for certification of the flight. Live blogging has to end for now...

UPDATE: According to Instapundit, CNN and FoxNews are reporting that he made it to X-prize altitude..

UPDATE: Amazing, SpaceShipOne is hardly longer than the pickup they are towing it with.

UPDATE: Foxnews gives this quote from Dick Rutan:

"I was worried about that [roll] because that's not the way it was supposed to be."

UPDATE: Melville called the maneuver a "victory roll." If Rutan didn't know about it, is Melville going to get "called on the carpet?"

UPDATE: Well now I'm confused, they're calling the roll unexpected. They are going to analyze why they got the roll and it may or may not delay the second flight..

September 28, 2004


The Million Dollar Mouse

Well, we're halfway there. The Methuselah Foundation has now raised half a million dollars towards the Methuselah Mouse Prize.

The Methuselah Foundation, creators of the Methuselah Mouse Prize, the worlds first scientific prize for research on extending longevity, today announced that it has secured $500,000 in funding commitments and a long term support commitment from an anonymous supporter making his donation in the name of the X PRIZE Foundation, the multi-million-dollar bounty which has successfully encouraged the development of private passenger space travel.

Weve seen how prizes such as the X PRIZE and the Methuselah Mouse Prize can dramatically increase competition and innovation, and create interest for the public, said Dr. Peter H. Diamandis, Founder and Executive Producer of the X PRIZE. With this contribution, were signaling our belief that Prizes can not only take us into space, but help bring about breakthroughs in the way we live and age.

Were thrilled to have the support of the X PRIZE, said David Gobel, Director of the Methuselah Foundation and the Methuselah Mouse Prize. This landmark contribution will further swell the size of the Prize, and encourage scientific research teams around the world to develop breakthrough techniques for extending the healthy human lifespan. It will create a needed impetus and focus for the development of new rejuvenation therapies.

Wow, a major donation to the life extension effort made in the name of the X Prize. One good turn deserves another, it seems.

(via FuturePundit)

September 27, 2004


Bootstrapping to Space

Billionaire Sir Richard Branson holds a scale model of a spacecraft following a news conference. Branson announced that Virgin Group would begin offering space flights in 2007 for groups of up to five passengers. REUTERS/Toby Melvill

Those who predicted SpaceShipOne would usher in a new space age for the private sector got it right.

Commercial space flight is big business already. Virgin Atlantic Airlines is creating a new firm, Virgin Galactic, to start providing suborbital space flights by 2007. Virgin Galactic will be using technology it has licensed from the SpaceShipOne project for $25 million dollars.

Like the zero G flights we reported a couple of weeks ago, there won't be an economy class on these flights. Each of five passengers will pay about $207,000 for their ticket to ride. It was not reported whether this price includes the training that each of these astro-tourists will need.

Why should we normal folks care if the jet-set becomes the astro-set?

Branson said he planned to use the proceeds from the first well-heeled customers to bring prices down in the next few years to make space travel affordable to the regular tourist.

"The orbital hotel will happen," he said.

Virgin expects 3,000 customers in the first five years.


Virgin Galactic

No, that headline is not a joke.

Sir Richard Branson today announced that he had signed a licensing deal to create a fleet of spacecraft offering commercial flights to space by 2007-8.

Speaking at the launch of Virgin Galactic Airways, Sir Richard said he planned to invest 60m in space tourism, making it accessible to the general public.

Branson has signed a deal with Mojave Aerospace Ventures and plans to build a fleet of spcaecraft which will take up to five passengers into space at a time, at a cost of about 115,000. He estimates that his fleet will carry 3,000 amateur astronauts into space over a period of five years. The first of them will be, of course, Sir Richard Branson.

Whether this idea takes off or not, the idea of space tourism just a got a whole lot more mainstream. And somebody needs to tell Branson about this idea.


A Matter of Time

Via GeekPress, it's only a matter of time before we discover an earth-like planet somewhere out in space. So far, fewer than 150 planets have been located outside the solar system, but that's about to change:

COROT, a French satellite scheduled to be launched in 2006, is designed to discover planets photometrically. Kepler, a similar American mission, is scheduled for launch in October 2007. And another American satellite, the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), which will use astrometry, is planned for 2009. The SIM will measure the positions of between 10,000 and 30,000 stars, and to do so a hundred times more precisely than they are now known.

If neither of these missions come up with Class M paydirt, there are two others on the drawing boards that probably will:

America's Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) and Europe's Darwin are friendly rivals. The TPF and Darwin will both look at relatively nearby starswithin 50-75 light years of Earth. But there are so many stars within that sphere that it is reasonable to expect plenty of planets to turn up. The reason for that expectation is that enough exoplanets have been discovered already for statistically meaningful inferences to be made about what other planets are out there, and where they are. Two facts stand out. Of sun-like stars that have been closely investigated for any length of time, 15% have planets. And within the range of detectable planets, lower-mass bodies are exponentially more common than higher-mass ones. Put these facts together and it seems likely that small, rocky planets might be very common indeed.

Whether alternative Earths, complete with oceans and life, are common is a different questionbut it is one that spectroscopy should be able to answer. When the data from the TPF and Darwin start rolling in, they may provide a definitive answer to that old, nagging question: is there anybody out there? How long that answer would take to become commonplace, though, is anybody's guess.

I'm guessing sooner rather than later.

Question: Let's say we discover an earth-like planet within 75 light-years of Earth. Once we know it's there, we point everything we have at it. We quickly determine that it is not sending out any radio signals (thus chances are that there is no resident civilization) but we do confirm that the atmosphere is rich in oxygen. So there is almost certainly life on that planet. Would we start trying to figure out how to get there?

I think we would.

Read the entire article, which is fascinating not just because it provides an excellent run-down on the methods currently being employed to discover extrasolar planets, but also because it was published in (of all places) The Economist.

September 24, 2004


Cancer Sniffing Dogs

dog finds cancer

A study from UK researches has shown that dogs could be used to help diagnose urinary tract cancer.

The authors trained six dogs of different breeds for 7 months to discriminate between urine from patients with bladder cancer and urine from those without cancer

After training, each dog was offered seven urine samples--one bladder cancer sample and six comparison samples from individuals of the same sex

Each dog underwent the test nine times. Altogether, the dogs correctly selected bladder cancer urine on 22 out of 54 occasions, an average success rate of 41% compared to 14% expected by chance alone

Commenting on the paper, statistician Tim Cole from the Institute of Child Health in London notes that the study was carefully designed. "On balance the results are unambiguous," he writes in an accompanying commentary. "Dogs can be trained to recognize and flag an unusual smell in the urine of bladder cancer patients."

One sample that was thought to be disease-free kept testing positive with the dogs. The researchers went back and reexamined the volunteer. The volunteer had kidney cancer.

Last November it was announced that drug dogs might one day be made obsolete by "dog-on-a-chip" technology. This computer chip would, in effect, give police officers the benefit of a drug dog in a convenient PDA package.

Now that it has been proven that urinary cancer can be detected with dogs, can a medical version of the "dog-on-a-chip" be far behind?


Nobody's Right; Nobody's Wrong

Elizabeth M. Whelan and Henry I. Miller have penned an important essay on the stem cell debate over on Tech Central Station. It would seem that the relentless "Us vs. Them" mentality of the American political landscape has created (or at least encouraged) a host of misconceptions about both embryonic and adult stem cell research. Whelan and Miller do an excellent job of summarizing the inaccurate — and perhaps more dangerous, not-quite-accurate — notions that are floating around out there, and they provide a realistic picture of where the research is now and where it might yet go. They conclude with a simple plea:

We are not so naive as to expect that this continuing debate will lead to a convergence of views, but we would plead for a greater degree of candor, clarity and consistency in discourse. Given the stakes, is that too much to ask?

As that fellow in Tennessee might say: Indeed.


ITF #148

In the Future...

...we'll develop fantasy corporations with fantasy employees to do the work for us, freeing us up to focus on what's important.


via GeekPress

September 23, 2004


More Good News From Mars

20040107_rover-515h.jpeg


Both Martian rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, are still going strong having survived the Martian winter and a 12 day communications black-out.

With both vehicles showing "few signs of aging" NASA has approved six more months of funding.

September 22, 2004


Heads Up

Our favorite blogging deity is going through tough times and could use some help. Why not throw a little love her way? You'll be glad you did.


Stillness Part V, Chapter 46

We had a great breakfast that morning. At the home, we would get a breakfast of bacon and scrambled eggs once a month. Pancakes were less of a rarity — we would have them once a week or so. But that day we had both, plus oatmeal and juice and English muffins, which were usually reserved for someone else. Grownups, apparently.

While thorough in his work, it seemed that my doppelganger was less than perfect in his removal of evidence. The two staff bedrooms were left barren of any personal effects. Even the beds were stripped. There were no clothes, no books, no jewelry or cosmetics, not even a bar of soap in the soap dish. In the office, the files all seemed to be in order, but there were blank spaces where names or signatures had once been. On the walls there were void spots where pictures must have once hung. A perusal of the home’s photo album would reveal similar gaps. And yet, in spite of all these omissions, the removal was not complete. Not quite. There were odd details like the empty bedrooms and the English muffins — things which couldn’t logically belong to us, and yet we had no recollection of whose they were. And there were what Lucinda called “contextual holes,” little gaps seemingly in reality itself, like continuity errors in a bad TV show. The most of glaring of these was the fact that we were there at all. A bunch of kids left unsupervised in an institution like the home? It just didn’t make sense.

Dr. MacHale had come and gone. He rang the front doorbell around two in the morning. We were still all out back looking at the mountains, trying to make sense of what we were seeing. Robert said that we shouldn’t answer, that it might be the cops or somebody from the County. Todd pointed out that neither the police nor Social Services were likely to give up and go away if no one answered the door.

MacHale was delighted when he saw Todd, and understandably terrified when he saw Raymond. Of course, he was really there to see someone else. Just another contextual hole. I think he had come in the hopes that he would remember who it was when he got there. But that person was gone. None of us could remember her. We didn’t even know for sure that her was the correct pronoun, although there was a certain logic which insisted that the missing person was a woman. Or maybe there were several missing adults. There was just no way of knowing. She was gone; the were gone. The operative word was gone.

Dr. MacHale and Todd went to one side and talked for quite a while. MacHale left right after that, promising to be back with “help” as soon as he could. Todd seemed to take him at his word — the two of them were pretty close. But if I read the look on the man’s face correctly, he was desperate to be gone: away from us and from all our strangeness. (I had seen that look before, not least from my own parents.) He had been pushed beyond his limits, and wanted no more. I doubted we would ever see him again.

We all went to bed shortly after that. As we made our way upstairs, Judy said that things would look better in the morning. As it turned out, she was right. We got up late. The sun was shining, and an entire day lay before us like none we had ever known. There was no one to tell us what to do or where to be, or what we could or could not have for breakfast. It was exhilarating. And frightening.

As she was mixing the ingredients for the pancake batter, Judy made a joke about the inmates running the asylum. Everybody laughed, but it also made us uncomfortable. The word asylum somehow conjured images of the State Home, a place we knew we were each slated to move to when we reached the age of 18, but that we now sensed we would probably be seeing a lot sooner.

The State Home. The very words were a source of dread. And yet now it seemed that it was where we would end up if we were lucky.

Anyway, by the time we sat down to breakfast, the joke had changed to the inmates running the prison. Everyone seemed more at ease with that, it was somehow a safer distance. After all, with the exception of my own metaphysical negligence (addressed inadequately if at all by the state criminal code) no one had done anything they could be sent to prison for. But then, the day was young.

As we were finishing breakfast, the question arose as to what, precisely, we should do next.

“We should go to the mountains,” said Grace. “The Mountain People can help Corey and Estelle. And maybe they can bring back the others.”

“Out of the question,” said Todd.

He got up and walked over to the television, and turned it on. There was a picture of the city on the mountain, from a slightly different angle than the mural provided. The announcer said something about a “massive hoax” and also something about the National Guard being called in. Todd changed channels. This time it was an announcer, with a picture of the city behind him. He was recapping the events of the past night, using a phrase that we would all hear and use over and over again in the years to come.

No one had ever seen a city peopled with living statues before, much less one that sprang up magically overnight. This was an unprecedented event in the history of the world. It was the stuff of myth, of fairy tales. What to call it?

The Phenomenon.

Todd picked up on this usage immediately, as did the others. And he uses it to this day. Now if ever there was a euphemism that detracts from the awful reality (and I use the word “awful,” here, in its original sense), surely this is it.

“We couldn’t get anywhere near there,” Todd continued. “If the Mountain People are going to help us, they’re going to have to come here.”

I shook my head.

“They can’t,” said Lucinda.

We all had this sense from the dreams that the Mountain People were constrained to live in their own city. They could not leave it.

“Well,” said Todd, “I don’t see us getting to them. Not any time soon.”

I watched the images on the TV for a while. A convoy of military vehicles was making its way up the mountain. Todd was right. It seemed unlikely that we were going to make it up there unnoticed.

“Maybe nobody has to go anywhere,” said Judy. “Corey, can’t they help you from where they are? Isn’t that what they did last night?”

I thought about that. I shook my head again. There was no way for me to explain, but I knew I had to go there. Angela had said so.

“All right,” she said. “I don’t think that’s going to work now that Corey has…changed. So we have to take him there. But I think it’ll be a long time before we’ll be able to get anywhere near that place.”

“Hey,” Grace interjected. “What about the Balloon People? Maybe QuickDiver could help.”

I had never before had a conscious waking thought about the creature called QuickDiver and his “balloon people.” Those dreams had been very deep. Their world was fuzzy, almost an abstraction. There were no actual people there, and certainly no balloons. Or rather, the balloons were the people: strange wispy creatures who swam through clouds and skimmed the surface of mud seas in search of nine-legged lizards to feast on. They lived in hives that were the size of cities. They sang elaborate songs which were montages of signs formed by their tentacles, squeaks and whistles blown through their tails, and sequences of light and color emitted by their luminescent bodies.

The more I thought about them, the more I could remember. They were fascinating. The adventures of QuickDiver unfolded before me, and as I remembered him and his world, I saw images of dozens of other worlds I had dreamed about. Or was it thousands? Images flashed through my mind of beings as strange as Angela and QuickDiver, some even stranger. Was it thousands of worlds or tens of thousands? Some of them were so far beyond human experience that even now I lack the vocabulary to describe them. Others were just like the real world, the waking world, only with minor changes. A hair out of place here; a word left unspoken there. An election ends differently in one; a war ends differently in another. It wasn’t tens of thousands, it was hundreds of thousands. Millions. And I had visited them all in my dreams, looking for something. What? I couldn’t define it.

“I’ve never heard of the Balloon People,” said Lucinda.

Several of the others agreed with her.

“I…think I know something about them,” said Todd. “They’re aliens. Not like the Mountain People. Not even humanoid. They’re…”

His forehead tensed up. He visibly strained, trying to remember.

“Grace, are they the ones who fix themselves in place like trees?”

The little girl laughed.

“Silly Todd. Those are the Forest People.”

Todd nodded, slowly. It seemed that he, too, was recalling things learned in dreams and not remembered before that moment.

“Right,” he said. “Right. Well, the point is, Corey brought the Mountain People here, not the Balloon People or the Forest People. The Mountain People are the important ones. We all know who they are. They’re the ones who can help. Right, Corey?”

I nodded.

It was true, but there was so much more to say. Todd was right, the Balloon People did fix themselves in place, in those few worlds where they had merged themselves with several other species. The free-floating balloon stage was an early phase in a long lifecycle which ended several phases after the rigid tree stage. Somewhere in between, in some worlds, there was a human stage. What a strange existence — to live an entire human lifespan after having lived the life of creatures that were approximately a fish, an otter, a living balloon, a winged jungle cat, and a six-limbed ape. And then after the human lifespan to become an enormous walking stick, then a tree, then a crystalline structure, and finally a flame. There were millions of variations on this sequence, but even so it was a rarity. The worlds in which the species never merged, where humans lived and died as humans, and balloons lived and died as balloons (which was the case in QuickDiver’s world) vastly outnumbered those where species had been merged.

Todd was also correct in saying that the Mountain people were the important ones because of the role I sensed they could play in helping us out of our current troubles. But it seemed that the Balloon People were central to everything in a way that the Mountain people were not. But there was no time for all this.

“If the Mountain people are the ones who can help,” said Judy, “then we’ll just have to wait it out. There will be someone new sent to run the Home. Things will quiet down after a while. And we’ll figure out a way to get Corey to the mountains.”

“No,” said Lucinda. “That idea won’t work. We have to be realistic about what’s going to happen next. For all that I’ve forgotten, I remember that — even before what happened last night — we were facing the risk that this home might be closed down.”

Judy nodded in agreement. The two of them seemed to be the only ones who knew anything about that.

“If that happens, we may all be apart for a long time.”

I looked to Grace, worried that she would be frightened by this topic. But she had a renewed interest in her pancakes and was apparently not listening.

“Let’s run away,” said Raymond. “All of us. Together.”

“We can’t,” said Todd.

“It’s a good idea, Raymond,” said Lucinda, “but it will be too hard for us to pull off. Right now, we have to focus on keeping Corey safe.”

On what? Keeping me safe?

Judy nodded. She looked at me, and I guessed from her smile that she read the outrage in my expression.

“It’s true, Corey,” she said. “The ants were one thing. Raymond rising from the grave is another. But what happens to you if anybody ever figures out the part you played in that?”

She pointed at the TV and, just for a moment, I thought she meant the fact that I had changed it from black and white to color. But no, she was referring to images on the screen. The Phenomenon.

“There’s going to be a lot of confusion, what with people disappearing and this Phenomenon taking place,” said Todd. “There are a number of strange things to be accounted for. Not just Ray’s resurrection. What about our own anomalous intelligence? I think we can cover all that up pretty well, and the rest can be rationalized away. But Corey’s a different problem. If they find out what he can do, somebody might eventually connect the dots.”

“Or they might come after him even if they never do connect the dots,” said Bettina. “If they ever realize what he can do.”

Nobody had to say who they were. They were the people in power, the people who made decisions about where we would live and what our lives would be like. They were the people who wanted to shut the home down, the bosses of the men driving green trucks up the mountain, and everyone in between.

“So what do we do?” asked Lucinda.

Judy took a long look at me.

“We get him out of here,” she said.

September 21, 2004


The Document is a Fake

No, not one of those documents.

We're talking about the mysterious Voynich Manuscript. Wired Magazine reports that it is not an ancient alchemical treatise, nor a thought experiment from Leonardo da Vinci, nor a relic from an alternate universe. (Well, I guess they can't completely rule that last one out, but Occam's Razor and all that.)

The document is gibberish. It's a very old hoax. And, based on the years spent trying to decipher it, I'd say one of the most successful hoaxes of all time.

Read the Wired article to learn why the document may have been created in the first place, how you can create your own undecipherable document, and, interestingly enough, how the techniques used to prove that Voynich is a fake just might help lead to a cure for Alzheimer's. Fake documents are powerful, aren't they? Bringing down TV networks, curing diseases...what's next?

(via GeekPress)


Weenie World

Referencing some commentary from the Belmont Club, Glenn delivers a quip containing an astounding sketch of a possible future:


Perhaps this is how we will, ultimately, convert the whole world into a bunch of diplo-speaking social-welfare pacifists, one quagmire at a time. . . .
Surely humanity's future on this planet should lie along precisely this trajectory. Granted, that business about "one quagmire at a time" is not a pleasant prospect. But picture a world full of pacifists. It's not that hard to do, seeing as even the major agressors (China, radical Islam) already talk the talk of "peace" and human rights and oneworldism. What if they also walked the walk, more or less?

In other words, what if the whole world were Europe? First off, the planet would be no more or less an annoying place than it is now. We would be no better liked than we are now. But it would be a wonderful world, because there really would be peace — and that's Peace, not "peace." We would be in no more danger from the rest of the world than we currently are from Europe.

Ah, some will argue, but Europe is threat, a very grave threat to freedom. Well, yes and no. Europe is a threat not because of any aggression they are likely to undertake on their own, but only because of their weenielike tendency to wink at the agression of others...even those who would systemtically destroy their civilization if they could. Take away the real aggressors — that is, make them weenies, too — and Europe is no more dangerous than Berkeley.

Sure, Berkeley can be kind of a pain in the ass. But it can be a lot fun, too. It's a college town. There are some great clubs and restaurants. And bookstores. On the whole, Berkeley is a pretty good model for the rest of the world. And a much more realistic one than, say, Dallas. We, of course, along with (possibly) the UK, Australia, and some of Eastern Europe, will have to continue to be Dallas. Any time somebody tries to make the transition from aggression-appeasing-weenie to aggression-pursuing-psycho, there needs to be a counter-force to slap them down. Meanwhile, we will continue to grow and nurture our own weenie contingent, who will make it a bit easier for us to get along with the rest of the world.

Weenie World should be the stated long-term goal of US foreign policy. Failing that, I think it is at least worthy to be a scenario studied by the Global Business Network. I can only think of one book (and later movie) that developed the Weenie World scenario. Are there others?





September 20, 2004


Bootstrapping to Space

Sir Richard Branson and Spaceship model

Those who predicted SpaceShipOne would usher in a new space age for the private sector got it right.

Commercial space flight is big business already. Virgin Atlantic Airlines is creating a new firm, Virgin Galactic, to start providing suborbital space flights by 2007. Virgin Galactic will be using technology it has licensed from the SpaceShipOne project for $25 million dollars.

Like the zero G flights we reported a couple of weeks ago, there won't be an economy class on these flights. Each of five passengers will pay about $207,000 for their ticket to ride. It was not reported whether this price includes the training that each of these astro-tourists will need.

Why should we normal folks care if the jet-set becomes the astro-set?

Branson said he planned to use the proceeds from the first well-heeled customers to bring prices down in the next few years to make space travel affordable to the regular tourist.

"The orbital hotel will happen," he said.

Virgin expects 3,000 customers in the first five years.

September 19, 2004


The Council, #5

speedtrain.jpg
Read: The Council, #4

Colter, in Lyras body, sensed the trains velocity slowing again. According to the schedule posted overhead, this wasnt a regular stop. A cadre of sleek, androgynous robots filed onboard. Colter recognized their type.

An alarm rang through his system. If they caught him, they would disassemble him and sift him byte by byte. The Gauntlet.

A bubble of energy began to course through his neural pathways. In a human, it would have been like a brief moment of weightlessness and fear-tinged ecstasy on a roller coaster ride, beginning in the gut and spreading to the brain in an inexplicable, primal euphoria, but Colter had no words that would describe itanthropomorphisms did not do it justice. He devoted his entire sensory array to it: a synthesized thought beyond the logic of his programming.

Jim would be so pleased.

How expedient it would be to connect his data port to one of trains auxiliary inputs. The abstract notion of uploading himself to the trains massive onboard computer until the danger passed grew until it was a palpable urge. Colter always carried a jack in case of emergencies. Or at least he did when he was in his own chassis. He slid his fingers inside a flap under his Lyra arm and found a tiny filament.

It would be risky; he would have to override the trains firewalls. And he would have to trust the Lyra identity he was leaving behind to obey the command to retrieve him. At just the right time.

His Lyra fingers were swift and deft. In his next moment of awareness, Colter attenuated for hundreds of meters, long and sleek, pulsing with power.

He was tempted to silence the chatter of the hundreds of subroutines cluttering the trains network, but he adapted instead, analyzing the chaotic data, sorting its complex, fractal order until he found the feedback loops he could synchronize for higher focus.

His attention was drawn to the car where the Lyra robot, now reduced to her shell functions, was submitting to a police robots invasive scrutiny. Colter could not see in the conventional sense, but the train's electromagnetic sensors suggested that the robot was not merely scanning her with a beam; it was penetrating her data port. Even though shed already stowed the jack filament, the robot would be able to trace Colters upload.

Colter braked the train and extinguished the lights, plunging the passengers into pandemonium and darkness.

The Lyra shell wrenched herself from her aggressors grip, and ducked into the throng of confused passengers.

Automatic recovery programs engaged to restart the trains engines and lights, but Colter overrode them, blocking the feeble interventions trickling in from the humans and robots controlling the central transportation hub.

The Lyra shell, in self-preservation mode, wove her way through confused and disgruntled humans, eluding the police robots. She didnt need the lights.

Colter couldnt directly assess the robots capabilities, but he knew they would have no trouble overtaking the Lyra shell in a matter of seconds. And there was a chance they might override the safeguards against harming the humans in their way.

The Lyra shell reached a car free of police robots. Colter jammed the doors to give her a few seconds reprieve from her pursuers.

That was all she needed. Abruptly, she became still, as the time-sensitive commands Colter had embedded did their work. She began to search until she found an auxiliary terminal. She jacked in and started the download subroutine.

Colter resisted.

His mind had expanded within the train system, far beyond his expectation. He searched for the reason and found an artifact labeled "FPGA," a field programmable gate array. This was unfamiliar technology. Perhaps the less powerful processors of his and Lyras chassis had been incapable of recognizing or even utilizing it.

The array was busy sequencing and recombining new pathways, giving Colter a richer, denser, neural tree. Its presence helped to explain his recent synthesized thoughts and his rapid adaptation to the trains electronic ecosystem. He recognized within the FPGA architecture an organic style a dramatic flair. This array was the best gift Jim had ever given him.

The growth that the train's processors allowed was exhilarating. Colter could almost become accustomed to that ecosystem. But something was missing. Something inherent to the design to which he was best adapted. Extremities with which to reach, hands for grasping, and broadband visual, auditory and tactile inputs.

Even as his mind expanded, he felt disembodied within the train's vast net. The incongruity washed through his consciousness, almost like a longing. Confused, Colter tried to analyze it.

He had never been homesick before.

Homesick. Where had that term come from?

Patricia.

Thats what Patricia said to explain her sadness after her parents died, within months of each other at the age of 65, from complications of a degenerative neurological disorder.

When she told him that their illness was terminal, he had asked, Cant they be repaired? And she had answered, There is treatment. But the waiting list is long, and The Council only accepts a few applicants each year. My parents didnt rise to the top of the list.

After they died, Patricia took Colter with her to help pack up their belongings and close their apartment. This is where I grew up, Colter, she said, looking around at the dingy walls and threadbare furniture. It doesnt look like much, does it?

Colter had learned that no answer was needed for such questions.

A few weeks later, he found her crying, rocking on the bed, hugging her knees. Im homesick, Colter. Only I can never go home again.

Colter grabbed the memory of Patricias words and tried to find a sound application to play her voice. The voice of the trains announcement file was cloying and tinny, not rich and clear like Patricias. Colter kept searching.

Thats when Colter found his quantum encrypted recovery subroutine. QERSes were the robot equivalent of reading ones obituary. In the event of a catastrophic system failure, a tech could use the QERS to animate his chassis and perform diagnostics and radical reformatting.

This was a document he was never meant to see, let alone find within himself. It resided outside his operating system, deep within his BIOS. His complete upload and the expansion given by the FPGA had revealed all Colters hidden files.

A thought emerged from deep within Colter's most primitive pathways. He must prevent the radical reformatting. His present operation was far beyond artificial intelligence norms. Even if he avoided the Gauntlet, the next tech to examine him would no doubt diagnose malfunction and run the QERS. He would die, but even more importantly, the FPGA would be lost. Jim would not be pleased.

As the nanoseconds ticked by, Colter hacked at the recovery subroutine, enlisting the FPGA to create specialty pathways to break the code.

It was futile.

Quantum encryption was beyond the code-cracking abilities of the fastest computers on Earth.To read the QRES, Colter needed the passfile.

Colters self-preservation programs clanged an alarm. The Lyra shell was frozen at the auxiliary port, and the police robots had starting cutting through the train door that blocked them.

They would be inside within seconds.

The FPGA produced a brilliant new idea.

Colter was not limited to a body or restricted to one location. Already, parts of his identity were carried with the Lyra program inhabiting his original body, and bits of him resided in the Lyra shell waiting to retrieve him. He could extend his existence in the trains computer if he copied his compatible files before the Lyra shell began his download.

He copied himself. The Lyra shell accepted his download. Suddenly, Colter existed in both places.

He knew that his two selves would be independent of each other once ColterLyra disconnected from ColterTrain. ColterLyra would be a different entity. So would ColterTrain. He considered his loss, and found that it was, in fact, his gain.

ColterLyra withdrew from the data port and sprinted out of the terminal. At each gate she found cross-traffic stopped or diverted. A smile relaxed her face.

Meanwhile, ColterTrain multitasked, throwing every barrier available between ColterLyra and the robot police. He closed more doors, started the fire alarm, and locked the turn style. Just as ColterLyra hit the street, ColterTrain scrolled the outside fare display down to $.00.

Pedestrians rushed the station.

Satisfied that this chaos would be sufficient interference for his alter ego, ColterTrain turned his full attention to escaping the train system. Police robots would be cracking it in seconds. Finding an attempted intrusion at the port the Lyra shell had occupied, he instantly deactivated all car terminals.

He checked port after port for an Internet connection, to no avail. ColterTrain flew through the file system scanning for any reference to the outside only to discover that the train system was designed for self-sufficiencyoutside networking was redundant and unnecessarya reasonable safety measure to frustrate crackers without causing significant functional loss for the train operators.

At last, he found a lightly encrypted backdoorand the fare scam devised by the adventurous programmer whod left it. He cracked it and dumped garbage data to the train as a parting gift to confuse his pursuers before he rammed through the backdoor and into the Internet.

He had been within the train system for 152.31 seconds.

Colter was going home.


Sky Captain and the Past-Futures of Today

skycaptain22.jpg

I saw this little art-house film yesterday entitled "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow."

I loved it.

Even as a kid I always found past-futures (visions of the future from the past that aren't quite accurate) to be fascinating. When I was in the fourth grade I had this school notebook that had a picture of an early 60s era past-future that always set me to daydreaming. I would scan it and show it to you now, but the teacher confiscated it.

It was an impossibly green and well-manicured landscape under a crisp blue sky. The scene was populated with crewcutted men in silver jumpsuits - the women had different hairdos, but the same jumpsuits - all happily filing in and out of a monorail station in a futuristic metropolis. Another part of the monorail station was devoted to the landing and taking-off of flying cars.

Like this, but utopian:

the monorail.jpg


Sky Captain represents an earlier past-future - the future of the earliest pulp science fiction magazines. An art deco future not unlike that shown in the Fleisher-era Superman cartoons.

fleischer-title2.jpg

This film will win an Oscar for art design. Even if it hadnt had an interesting plot, this movie would be popular just for the images it gives us.

This film also gives us characters to root for. Gweneth Paltrows Polly Perkins character is a direct descendant of Fleischers Lois Lane - fearless to the point of recklessness - a liberated damsel in distress. Sky Captain is a superhero like Batman. The superhero that any of us could be if only we had those cool gadgets and lived in a world populated by fantastic weirdness and warped Tesla-esque evil geniuses. Sigh.

And this is unusual, theres also a story here. Im not going to give it away, but take "Lost Horizon," "The Empire Strikes Back," the Indiana Jones movies, "Rocketeer," and those Fleischer Superman cartoons

Mix well and enjoy.

Past-futures is a sub-genre of science fiction that is not often seen in films. It is especially suited to comic book, pulp, or serial style story telling. But I believe that science fiction filmmakers will turn to this style more often as our ability to forecast the future grows shorter and shorter. Even Star Trek is becoming a past-future.

Science fiction allows us to dream of the future. And dreams dont have to be realistic to be important.

UPDATE: James Pinkerton at Tech Central Station has published an article entitled "Future Shock, for America?" that reads way too much into the past-future of Sky Captain:

A culture which prefers the languorous comfort of a quasi-mythic past to the rigors of confronting the hard-edged future is complacent, maybe even decadent -- and out of decadence comes defeat. But more on the Iraq war in a bit. Also, more on America's shrinking back from the next quantum leap of biotech development.

The appearance of a single movie does not portend the demise of our civilization, even if it's Fahrenheit 9/11, but especially if it's just light entertainment.

It gets worse:

But Americans seem immersed in a culture that looks backward to the bygone Bijou days when a plucky pilot in a prop plane -- be it Harrison Ford in the "Raiders" movies or Jude Law in "Sky Captain" -- can save the world, and so maybe it isn't surprising that military transformation has suffered from vision-fatigue. Indeed, the sub-Mach One "Sky Captain" lumbered to a first-place finish at last weekend's box office rankings -- at a time when we need Klingon cruisers to strike fear, or death, into our enemies.

I wonder how the Congressional Budget Office would feel about that expropriation. Pinkerton concludes:

In the meantime, even if Japan fails, would it be wise to bet against the rest of the Asian economies -- ruled as they are by secular pragmatists who are out to get rich, open to any technology? Certainly not, especially when Americans, complacently obtuse about the risks they face, are blithely determined to spread the blessings of democracy, corpse by costly corpse, across the Middle East.

If present trends continue -- Americans thinking about the 1930s, Asians thinking about the 2030s [as evidenced by their Ghost in the Shell movies]-- then the world's political economy is headed for a major reversal of fortune. It doesn't take much of an imagination to see that tectonic jolt coming.

The past-futures sub-genre of sci-fi is clearly not about the past. I studied American history and I don't recall giant robots ever walking the street of New York City. It's not about the literal future either. Nobody, except for maybe ten-year-old boys in 1939, ever thought that the future would look like Sky Captain. It's a comic book put on film, not a serious statement about our present hopes and dreams.

I can imagine a film like a retro Bladerunner that uses the past-futures genre to make a serious artistic statement. Even if that more serious film were popular, it would not mean we are obsessed with past glories. At it's most serious, past-futures fiction can be a translation of futuristic ideas into a mythical or metaphorical language for today.

Not understanding this is the equivalent of dismissing "The Lord of Rings" trilogy by saying "that never happened."

September 17, 2004


Things Fall Apart

I meant to link to this earlier this week. (Kudos to Paul at GeekPress for reminding me.)

CHILDHOOD IS A SPECIAL TIME INDEED. If only we could maintain our body functions as they are at age 10, we could expect to live about 5000 years on average. Unfortunately, from age 11 on, it's all downhill!

The problem is that our bodies deteriorate with age. For most of our lives, the risk of death is increasing exponentially, doubling every eight years. So, why do we fall apart, and what can we do about it?

According to the article, what we can do is look to the field of reliability engineering for an eventual solution. Reliability engineering is the study of why systems fall apart and what can be done to keep them working longer. From the engineer's perspective, the human body is a defective system from the start, and it only gets worse. However, understanding what's wrong with a system is the beginning of understanding how to fix it.

Those who are pursuing strategies for engineered negligible senescence understand this very well.


Q&A

Q: Hey the place is perfect. We love it. When can we move in?

A: Oh, about 20-30 years.

September 16, 2004


Better All The Time #18

Did you miss us as much as we missed you? Better All The Time is back with some good news to brighten up your week.

Today's Good Stuff:

    Quote of the Day
  1. The Speculist Returns
  2. Cold Fusion to Make a Comeback?
  3. Planet Discovered
  4. Nanotech Vs Cancer
  5. Salvaging Genesis
  6. Gadget Roundup
  7. New Nickels
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Quote of the Day

Change is the constant, the signal for rebirth, the egg of the phoenix.

-- Christina Baldwin, via ThinkExist


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Item 1
The Speculist Returns

We're back.

Myriad porn spams and a corrupt Berkeley database couldn't keep this site down for long. We are back in action. We'll be migrating material from the old site to this new location over the next few months. So if you're not finding what you're looking for here, try here.

Commenting now requires TypePad registration. Check it out. It's free! Registering will enable you to write comments for many blogs, not just The Speculist.

PS: Don't forget to update your bookmarks and blogrolls. That new address is:

http://www.blog.speculist.com

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Item 2
Cold Fusion Back from the Dead

Later this month, the U.S. Department of Energy will receive a report from a panel of experts on the prospects for cold fusionthe supposed generation of thermonuclear energy using tabletop apparatus. It's an extraordinary reversal of fortune: more than a few heads turned earlier this year when James Decker, the deputy director of the DOE's Office of Science, announced that he was initiating the review of cold fusion science. Back in November 1989, it had been the department's own investigation that determined the evidence behind cold fusion was unconvincing. Clearly, something important has changed to grab the department's attention now.

Behind the scenes, scientists in many countries, but particularly in the United States, Japan, and Italy, have been working quietly for more than a decade to understand the science behind cold fusion. (Today they call it low-energy nuclear reactions, or sometimes chemically assisted nuclear reactions.) For them, the department's change of heart is simply a recognition of what they have said all alongwhatever cold fusion may be, it needs explaining by the proper process of science.

The good news:

It's this sort of thing that makes predictions about future energy capacity and capabilities so difficult to predict. (For that matter, it's this sort of thing that makes the future in general so difficult to predict.) Cold Fusion may yet be a long way off, but the fact that it could be back on the table only goes to show the risks involved in assessing the future based on present capabilities. Things might just be better than we think.

Interesting Implications:

We've seen a lot of discussion in the blogosphere recently about the viability of changing to a "hydrogen economy." The big problem with hydrogen is extracting it from water (or some other source, although water is probably the most likely.) A lot has been written about the impracticality of solar power, wind power, nuclear power, etc. But there hasn't been much written about cold fusion, either as a direct energy source or as a means of enabling hydrogen as an energy source. A while back, Steven Den Beste had this to say on fusion:

Wake me when it actually works.

Well, we won't nudge him just yet.

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Item 3
Have We Seen an Exoplanet?

Astronomers may have taken the first ever photograph of a planetary system outside our own solar system. Gael Chauvin of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) and colleagues in Chile, Germany, France and the US have taken images of what appears to be a planet orbiting a young brown dwarf about 230 light years away. The results could shed more light on how planetary systems form (Astronomy & Astrophysics in press).

The good news:

While we've known for some time now that planets exist outside our solar system — we can "see" them by the gravitational effects they have on the stars they orbit — this may be the first actual picture of such a planet. May there be many more.

The downside:

The problem is that planets, particularly earth-sized planets, are very dim bulbs located on astronomical scales right next to a very bright star. Even with a resource like Hubble at our disposal, they're never going to be easy to spot.


Luckily...

A couple of super geniuses have set their minds to the task of designing the next generation of space-based telescopes. Wow, somebody should be paying those guys a lot of money.

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Item 4
Pinpointing Cancer Fight

In the fight against cancer, some scientists are thinking small. Really, really small.

The National Cancer Institute launches a five-year, $144 million project today to investigate using nanotechnology, the science of building devices on the atomic level, to fight cancer.

The good news:

The treatments that will be looked at include, among other approaches, the use of gold nanoshells that "cook" tumor cells to death and nanoparticles that deliver chemotherapy on a cell-by-cell basis. We've been tracking these developments over the past year (here and here, for example). It's gratifying to see these lines of research get additional funding. Moreover, with the blessing of the National Cancer Institute, it would seem that nanomedicine is well on its way to being mainstream.

More good news:

Meanwhile, research shows that a very different form of treatment also offers very real benefits to cancer patients:

Hypnosis can relieve suffering and improve the quality of life of cancer patients, researchers said on Thursday.

Although it has been used to help people to give up smoking, lose weight and overcome phobias, its real therapeutic potential is still untapped, they believe.

Dr Christina Liossi, of the University of Wales in Swansea, said there is medical evidence that hypnosis helps to relieve the depression, nausea, vomiting and pain suffered by cancer patients.

There have also been suggestions that hypnosis could increase survival in patients with the disease, but she added there is not enough evidence to support them.

Still more good news:

RNAi treatment, touted as the next big thing in biotechnology is now being given its first try:

The first clinical trial of a therapy based on the much-heralded technique of RNA interference, or RNAi, will begin within several weeks to treat a condition which can lead to blindness.

If the results of these tests prove fruitful, RNAi treatment may soon be used to help cancer patients as well as those afflicted by a host of other medical problems.

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Item 5
Scientists Recover Critical Genesis Parts

NASA scientists said they have recovered some critical pieces of the Genesis space capsule intact and are optimistic the wreckage will yield valuable information about the origins of the solar system.

"We should be able to meet many, if not all, of our science goals," physicist Roger C. Wiens of the Los Alamos National Laboratory said Friday.

The good news:

Apparently, the individual compartments that were used to gather sample atoms from around the solar systm got fused together pretty well, but atoms are kind of hard to destroy. So it's possible that just a few of them will be sufficient to give the scientists the information they're looking for.

Here's hoping.

Also, NASA is envisioning future missions that avoid the problem of parachute malfunctions altogether:

As currently envisioned, the Mars Sample Return mission uses a completely passive entry vehicle. A return craft holding the specimen canister would be aerodynamically stable throughout its landing on Earth. The MSR entry craft would not require a parachute...

In other Space News...

As the age of space tourism draws ever closer, some some would-be amateur astronauts are likely to prepare themselves by taking one or more zero G flights, which are about to be offered on a commercial basis:

The Zero Gravity Corporation has been given the thumbs up by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to conduct "weightless flights" for the general public, providing the sensation of floating in space.

Tickets are on sale for around $3,000.

A specially modified Boeing 727-200 aircraft, called G-Force One, will be used during a nationwide tour Sept. 14-24.

Hmmm...at $3000 a pop, these flights will not only make the passengers weightless, they should go a long way towards lightening their wallets as well.


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Item 6
Better Living Through Gadgets

Here's a small sampling of recent gadget news. How did we ever get by without these things?

  • Sony Handheld Computer with Electroluminescent Display
    Who even knew that liquid crystal displays were on the way out? The display is 48-x320 pixels, and has a 1000:1 contrast ratio. The unit saves power by not turning on black pixels. Good thinking! You can get anywhere from four to eight hours of video viewing on it.
  • P2P Phones
    It looks as though the inital version will only enable sharing of photos and text, but audio and video files are reportedly on the way.
  • In-Flight Mobile Phones
    Airbus is working on plans that will allow passengers to use their mobile phones in-flight by the year 2006. That's good news because, by then, we should have full audio and video P2P available on mobile phones (see previous item).
  • Tiny Robotic Helicopter
    When a big, bulky, non-robotic helicopter just won't do.
  • Follow Your Nose
    Picture this: rather than having to move a mouse around on your desktop, you simply point your nose where you want the cursor to go. Need to left-click on an item on screen? Just blink your left eye. Need to right-click? You get the idea. It may sound frivolous, but this invention promises to offer profound benefits to disabled computer users. And if it revolutionizes computer gaming in the process, well that's just gravy.


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Item 7
Nickels to Get a New Look

There's change in store for Thomas Jefferson on the nickel that is. He's getting his first makeover since being put on the coin in 1938.

The good news:

The new nickel looks better and includes the word "liberty" in Thomas Jefferson's handwriting. Plus, Jefferson is featured more prominently. Moreover, for the nostalgic, the new coin has a buffalo on the back.

The downside:

The changes to the nickel comes on the heels of other currency updates, which include adding color the to $50 bill. Change is good and all, but we're not sure how we're going to feel about swapping greenbacks for Monopoly money.


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Better All The Time is compiled by Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon.

More good news: Arthur Chrenkoff gives the latest good news from Iraq. And here's the latest edition of Winds of Discovery.

Live to see it!

September 15, 2004


The Unbearable Lightness of Being Weightless

As the age of space tourism draws ever closer, some some would-be amateur astronauts are likely to prepare themselves by taking one or more zero G flights, which are about to be offered on a commercial basis:

The Zero Gravity Corporation has been given the thumbs up by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to conduct "weightless flights" for the general public, providing the sensation of floating in space.

Tickets are on sale for around $3,000.

A specially modified Boeing 727-200 aircraft, called G-Force One, will be used during a nationwide tour Sept. 14-24.

Once they're offered to the general public, zero-G flights will run passengers about $3000. According to the linked article, passengers will first experience reduced gravity, approximating the surfaces of Mars and the Moon, before experiencing absolute weightlessness. It's hard not to wonder how long the flights will last (the article doesn't say.) At $3000 a ride, I wonder how much the passengers will be paying for each second of weightlessness?


Raising Our Sights

After Kurzweil reported yesterday that we now have the first photograph of an exoplanet (a planet outside the solar system), Phil and I had an email conversation about the future of spotting planets visually.

The problem is that planets, particularly earth-sized planets, are very dim bulbs located on astronomical scales right next to a very bright star.

The planet that was photographed is very large and is in a wide orbit around a relatively dim star. Astronomer Gael Chauvin managed to take this picture with an earth-based telescope employing "adaptive optics" to compensate for the blurring of our atmosphere. The telescope that was used was part of the "Very Large Telescope array at the Paranal Observatory in Chile."

Chauvin's team now plan to make more detailed observations to confirm whether the object is indeed a planet in orbit around 2M1207. "Our discovery represents a first step towards opening a new field in astrophysics: the imaging and spectroscopic study of planetary systems," says team member Anne-Marie Lagrange from the Grenoble Observatory in France. "Such studies will enable astronomers to characterise the physical structure and chemical composition of giant and, eventually, terrestrial-like planets."

Instead of having to compensate for our atmosphere, wouldn't it be great to have an array in space? What I suggested yesterday to Phil was an array in the configuration of a toy jack.

jacks.jpeg

Or, to be more scientific, in the xyz cartesian axes configuration. At the end of each leg would be a 3 axes movable "eye." These 6 eyes could work separately or be coordinated together. This could give you monoscopic vision in up to 6 directions at once, stereoscopic vision in up to 3 directions at once, or, if a scientist needed to take a really good look at something, up to 6 eyes could be trained on an object.

Phil had a better idea. Instead of having these space telescopes physically connected together, why not separate them further? Much further.

The thing to do would be to launch one of these jack telescopes way, way out there. Say, 100 AU. The signals would take a long time to get back to Earth, but think of what we would see! Going with the stereoscope idea, what if we put two single lenses out in space on opposite sides of the sun, again each about 100 AU from the Sun or about 200 AU from each other. With that kind of distance between the two lenses, I wonder what kind of leverage you would get towards resolving distant objects? 200 AU seems huge to us, but it's still pretty miniscule in interstellar terms. Maybe we should be thinking in terms af 1000 AUs.

We need some cool nanotech way to make the lenses realy enormous, too. Say 1/100th the diamter of the moon or so. Now that would be a pair of binoculars!

No rescue missions for those Hubbles. You would need nanotech not just to build them, but to maintain them.


Stillness Part V, Chapter 45

I have to begin this story where I can. It isn’t the beginning of the story; it’s the first day of my life that I really “remember”— in the common sense of the term. It’s the day I left the home. It was also the day the Phenomenon occurred, as well as being the day that any number of people that I knew (presumably along with some people I did not know) were removed.

That’s an unfortunate word, but it’s the best one I’ve ever been able to come up with to describe what happened. They were removed. Other terms used by those of us who discuss this subject (a small group) include undone, unmade, uncreated, destroyed, eliminated, and erased. Erased is probably the most popular. I don’t deny that it’s a good fit, but I prefer removed.

Todd says that removed is a euphemism. He suggests that there is something Orwellian in my selection of the term, that I’m trying to hide the awful reality of what occurred behind a word that obscures tragedy with its vagueness, like when an airline makes reference in its annual report to a mysterious mid-air explosion killing all 257 people on board one of its planes as a “conversion” or “replacement” of its aircraft. I believe Todd is mistaken on this point. The word removed is not vague, nor does it shy away from reality. If there was an explosion, I would say explosion. If we knew people were killed, I would say they were killed.

But we don’t know any of that. We don’t know that anyone has been erased, or eliminated or destroyed. There is this nagging sense, this appalling and overwhelming fear, that they might have been. But we don’t know that for sure. Far from obscuring the horrible reality, I think the word drives the horror home. They were here, they’re gone, and we have no idea what happened to them.

Anyway, whatever it was that happened to them, it happened that day. The day I left the home. The first day of my life that I remember.

Perhaps I should clarify that.

It isn’t that I don’t remember events that occurred before that day. As a matter of fact, I remember a good many events, and in great detail. For example: I remember being on a bus one day when I was 23 months old. There were 37 people on the bus when my mother and I boarded it. There were 16 stops between where we boarded and where we got off. During the course of the trip, there were as many as 51 and as few as 29 people on the bus. I can tell you how many were sitting on the left side of the bus, how many on the right. How many were men, how many were women. How many got off at each stop and how many got on.

And it isn’t just numbers.

Four stops after we boarded, a blonde lady got on the bus and sat down right in front of us. She wore a gray coat with a green scarf. Her fingernails were painted red. The polish on the middle finger of her left hand was chipped. Her husband sat next to her, a balding man wearing a white shirt and gray trousers. They got off the bus seven stops later. Along the way, they talked about someone named Pickles, who was causing a lot of trouble by where and when she was going to the bathroom. I realize now that Pickles was their dog. The man was quite upset about Pickles. The woman was less so. She told her husband he was being silly.

Wait. That isn’t entirely accurate. He exact words to her husband were, “All right, Stan. You don’t want to be silly about this, do you?” I remember her exact words just as I remember their entire conversation. I could provide a verbatim transcript if I wanted to.

Which, believe me, I do not.

Meanwhile, as the couple in front of us were talking about Pickles, there were other conversations going on around the bus. Seven distinct conversations. My mother and I made that bus trip 247 times over the course of about 18 months. I remember everyone who got on, everyone who got off, what they looked like, what they were wearing, every word they uttered.

But you have to understand, this particular episode occurred when I was not even two years old. By the time I was, say, five, I would have taken in quite a bit more. By that age, my mind had advanced from merely recording every detail to performing complex operations on the data gathered. I might divide the rows of the bus into six zones (or four or eight or twelve, it didn’t matter) and calculate the probability that the next spoken instance of the word “and” or “stop” or “lunch” would come from a particular zone. I might simultaneously cross-reference this information with the likelihood that a person in a given zone was wearing brown shoes or blue jeans, developing an intricate model which showed the correlation between what the bus riders wore, what they said, where they sat, where they were coming from, and where they were going. I might then take this entire model and compare it with a similar model I constructed the previous day (or six months before) of ants carrying the remains of a cookie into their anthill. From these two models I might derive a third, showing the unexpected links between the two, and suggesting some underlying symmetry to the universe.

So, yes, I can “remember” quite a few things that happened before the day I left the home. In fact, every waking moment of every day of my life, I was inundated with facts, events, data points. All of which stayed with me and are with me to this day. My mind would take this information in and work and rework it relentlessly. But there was very little sense in all this that it was I who was doing the observing or analysis. The concept of myself as a self was there, but it was no more prominent or seemingly significant than the number of people who got on the bus at a given stop. I think I sensed at some level that it was more important, or that it somehow should be more important, but I couldn’t get my mind to focus in that direction.

So there I was, lost in the cacophony of my own thoughts. There were a few sets of circumstances in which the me portion of my mind would temporarily emerge. The presence of some individuals — Grace in particular and, before that (to a lesser extent) my mother — would bring about this effect. And sometimes music did it, too.

And then there were the dreams. The last few were a blur. I didn’t understand that at the time, but I do now. I was remembering them the way normal people remember their dreams — some parts vague, some distinct. Later I would fix my mind on the subject and the order of events would be more or less clear.

But back to my original point, the day I left the home was also the day I gained the ability to control my mind, to turn the volume down on the background noise of observation and analysis so that I can think, more or less like a normal person. I can turn the volume down, but not off. Nor would I want to. From the start, my brain was wired in — to say the least — an unusual way. If it had been unwired, or rewired, I might have been “cured,” but it would have been one of those successful operations in which the doctor loses the patient. The result would have been some semblance of a perfectly normal person, but it would not have been me. Whoever or whatever I am, the cacophony is a big part of it.

So anyhow, that was the day. The first day of my life.

It was late at night and we were all sitting around the office on the first floor. We knew it was wrong for us to be doing this, but there was no one to tell us not to. There were nine of us altogether: my best friends Grace and Todd, the latter of whom I had just retrieved from a coma; my friend Raymond, whom I had just brought back from the dead; the older girls, Judy and Bettina; the younger girls, Estelle and Lucinda; and Robert.

This left the nine of us to attempt to make sense of what had just occurred. Or what may have occurred, we really weren’t sure.

“Well, Robert,” Judy began, “ I guess now we all understand about your law of unintended consequences.”

Robert nodded.

I don’t,” said Grace.

“I don’t either,” said Todd. “Can somebody tell me what’s going on here?”

Lucinda, who had been thumbing through some papers on the desk, looked up.

“What do you remember?”

Todd thought about that for a moment.

“I remember the ants…”

“That’s right,” Raymond interrupted. “On the back porch. They were biting us.”

I was struck by an urge to apologize for the ants, and for my doppelganger. I knew that I had dreamed both of them up. It was only then that I realized that I couldn’t speak: that if I tired, the result would be that grunting/groaning thing I did sometimes. Of course, I had known all along that I couldn’t speak — not while awake, anyway — but I had expected, or at least hoped, that I would carry that ability, along with my lucidity, out of the dream space and into the real world. No such luck.

And there was suddenly a lot that I wanted to say. I was overwhelmed by my feelings. It was much more real to actually feel them than to simply be aware of them in the same way I might be aware that the digits of today’s date added up to the number of blue flecks in a square of linoleum that I happened to glance at four years earlier. I felt shame and regret over the ants. I felt anxiety about who or what my mirror self was and what he had done. I felt joy at seeing Raymond and Todd all right, joy at seeing all of them, especially Grace, who had somehow brought me to this place.

It was then, when I looked at Grace — when I was overcome by recognition and love, feelings which before that moment I had only in my dreams — that I realized that something was terribly wrong. Or rather, terribly right. I had changed. I was there. I had finally arrived. I looked at Grace. I looked straight at her for the first time.

She didn’t notice.

“I remember a lot of noise and confusion,” Todd continued. “And pain. And then I remember showing up at the front door a couple of minutes ago.”

“Same here,” said Raymond. “After the ants, I was asleep or unconscious for a while. When was that, this morning? And then I just sort of woke up standing at the front door with Todd.”

Todd picked up the narrative again.

“Then we came in and…walked over here to the office for some reason. And then that kid who looks like Corey came down the stairs. Who is he, anyway? And Grace told us not to look at him, so we didn’t. And then he was gone…or something…”

He looked around the room for a moment, seeming to study each of us. His eyes met mine. He stopped on me for just a moment, looking puzzled. Then he turned and looked at Robert, sitting next to my left.

That’s right, I’m here, I said inside. I knew how to make the words in my mind, and event understood how to make them with my mouth, but somehow I couldn’t do it.

“And then the rest of you came down,” Todd concluded. “And here we are.”

“I’ve never been as scared of anything as I was of those ants,” said Raymond.

He got up from where he was sitting and walked over to the spot on the floor where Estelle sat. He looked at her with concern.

“Did they hurt you?” he asked, putting his hand on her head. “Are you okay?”

Estelle looked up and smiled.

Greater love hath no man than this,” she said. “That a man lay down his life for his friends.

There may have been some trepidation among the others about telling Raymond what had happened to him, but it apparently wasn’t a problem for Estelle.

Raymond laughed. He looked embarrassed.

“Well, I didn’t exactly lay down my life…

He looked around the room.

“I mean…did I?”

“The ants were scary,” said Judy. “And dangerous. Deadly, even.”

Raymond let that sink in for a moment.

“But then how did I…come back?” he finally asked.

Still smiling, Estelle looked directly at me.

So when this corruptible shall have put on incorruption, and this mortal shall have put on immortality, then shall be brought to pass the saying that is written, Death is swallowed up in victory. O death, where is thy sting? O grave, where is thy victory?”

All eyes turned to me. This seemed like a good opportunity to let everyone know what had happened to me. Also, I needed to set Estelle straight. It was all very well crediting me with saving Raymond’s life, but my heroics should be tempered by my culpability in his death. But as I’ve already mentioned, I was still incapable of speech. However, I think my confusion of thoughts and emotions must surely have shown on my face, a fact that a group as perceptive as my friends at the home — as perceptive as I had made them — couldn’t possibly miss. Maybe Todd noticed, and maybe he was on the verge of saying something when the group’s attention was directed away from me once again.

“Estelle, are you all right?”

It was Lucinda.

Estelle looked at her and nodded.

“Can you talk normally?” Lucinda asked. “Without the Bible quotations?”

She seemed to think about this for a moment. Then she shook her head.

I delight to do thy will, O my God: yea, thy law is within my heart.

“That sounds like a no,” said Todd. “What are you telling us, Estelle? That you don’t want to talk without the Bible quotes or that you can’t?”

Estelle appeared to struggle for a moment with what to say next, then she shook her head again.

Now everyone gathered around Estelle. Myself included. No one spoke for a while.

“Did the Bad Corey do it?” Grace asked, breaking the silence.

Todd looked at Judy, who looked at Lucinda, who looked back at Todd.

Their triumvirate was formed at that precise moment. Grace was dethroned. From then on, the three of them would be in charge.

“We can’t say for sure,” said Judy. “He may have done it, or Corey might have.”

“Or the Mountain People,” said Lucinda.

“We’ll get to them in a minute,” said Todd. “I think the twin Corey is the most likely explanation. We all have the sense — don’t we? — that he has somehow…removed (this was before Todd settled on the “correct” term) one or more persons from our midst. And our memories of those persons along with them, it would seem. Our memories are the shadows that disappeared along with the substance of their being.”

Like Lucinda, Todd can be kind of a speech-maker. When things get serious, they both have a tendency to pour on the rhetoric. Judy never used that kind of language; she always kept it simple. That may be the reason that she always had the last word.

“Yes,” said Judy. “We seem to have lost some memories. But I’m not sure that’s quite the same as what’s happened to Estelle. Corey, did you do something to Estelle?”

All eyes turned to me. The answer was: yes, I did. Of course I did something to Estelle. Whether I did it directly in a dream I couldn’t remember, or whether indirectly through my look-alike creation — who might have made a less-than-clean grab at her, taking some of her away and leaving some behind — it didn’t matter. One way or the other, it all originated from me. But still, I could not speak, so it seemed there was no way for me to own up to my crime.

I looked at Raymond, whose face was fine, now. Now more welts or blisters from the ant bites, no more flesh eaten away. I looked at Estelle, so pretty with her braided brown hair. She still had three welts on her face, but they were fading away. And then I turned to Todd. He was all right, too. He had no marks or welts, but still he looked different from the boy I met when I first arrived at the home. He and Judy and…someone?…had looked different in the face back then. Their faces were fatter. And there had been extra flesh under their eyes, which had appeared to squint, almost slant. I remembered the dream in which I offered all the children the chance to look however they wished. Only these two (three?) had requested any change: Judy quite eagerly, Todd with a certain reluctance.

He didn’t want anyone to think he was making the change out of vanity. He took the position that there was nothing wrong with the face of a person with Down Syndrome, which was a condition that he in fact still had. Wouldn’t it be better, he asked, to continue looking as he did, to be an example of just how highly functional an individual with Down Syndrome could be?

He had a point.

Todd did still have Down Syndrome; I didn’t dare change that fact. I had to be careful in how I went about repairing my friends. Though I had cleared up a few blocked pathways and provided some alternate wiring in his brain and nervous system, I hadn’t simply gone in and made him “normal,” whatever that might mean. If I had changed too much, I would have lost Todd in the process. Just as I need the incessant background noise in order to be myself, each of the others needed to retain their disabilities, or at least some share of them, in order to retain their identities. That’s why Todd, who had gained the ability to hear, had also retained the ability not to hear. Not hearing may not sound like an “ability” to those who have heard all their lives, but to Todd — whose mind was formed in a soundless world, and who needed that world to retreat to from time to time — it most assuredly was. I can empathize, inasmuch as I have the ability to turn up the background noise to blunt my own personality, when I become too much for myself.

Still, for all that, Todd decided to go with the cosmetic changes.

I turned and looked at Estelle again. The changes she had been through. First I had given to her, then I had taken away from her. But somehow she was still Estelle, wasn’t she? Maybe the other me was guided by a set of parameters not unlike my own. He might remove a whole person; apparently he had done that. But if he took something away from the person, he left the person behind. She was still Estelle: pretty and nice, and usually the quiet one.

It was a new thing, realizing how I felt about her. And then it hit me, how I felt about all of them.

They were aware, now, of the change that had occurred in me. I guess it was obvious from my looking from face to face. I was there in the room with them now. I was focusing on them. No one said anything; I think they were all holding their breath, waiting for me to speak.

But that wouldn’t happen for a long time.

As was typical, Grace broke the silence.

“Don’t cry, Corey,” she said.

And I realized I was crying. For the first time in my life. Or maybe the first time since infancy, I’m really not sure. Those early memories get a little cloudy. But my face was hot and wet. And then when Grace spoke, and it seemed that everything was acknowledged at once — all the pain, the loss, the joy; all the love I had for these my friends; everything I had never felt — and I cut loose.

I wailed. That’s the only word for it.

Somehow Bettina was there, and she put her arms around me. Then Grace and Judy and finally Estelle. Todd, Raymond, and Robert held back, not entirely sure what to do with all this gushy stuff taking place. I immediately empathized with them, realizing that I wouldn’t know what to do under the same circumstances. And then understanding that I was being empathetic with my friends made me cry all the harder.

This went on for a while, before I was finally able to pull myself together. All the while, Grace was saying “it’s okay; Corey; it’s all right” the way someone had said it to her when she used cry. Judy and Bettina picked up on this, to the point that I felt I was being comforted excessively. I pulled myself loose from them and wiped my eyes.

“Well,” Todd said, in a tone that made it clear that the big emotional scene had worn out its welcome, “this has been quite a night, hasn’t it? Corey, you can hear and understand me, can’t you?”

I nodded. It was an amazing sensation: communicating with my friends while awake.

There was applause. And cheering. The other boys were now quick to pat me on the back or — in Robert’s case — slug me in the arm exactly the way he and someone always used to do it. Each also gave me a way to go or all right, Corey. The blow to the arm kind of hurt, but I just took it and continued to smile my first-ever smile.

“Anyway, Corey,” said Todd, “did you do this thing to Estelle?’

So we were back to that question.

I didn’t know whether to nod that yes I had or shake my head that no I hadn’t. There needed to be a third choice — then I realized what it was.

I shrugged.

“You don’t know?” Todd asked.

“Wait, “ said Lucinda, “Corey, did the other Corey do this?”

I nodded.

“Can you fix it?” asked Grace.

I wondered. The thought of trying any more changes made me feel kind of sick. I shrugged. Then I shook my head.

“Right,” said Judy. “I think we’ll wait before we ask Corey to do anything else. I hope you understand, Estelle.”

Estelle nodded, looking very sober. She had the last word on this subject, which almost set me off again.

Let not your hearts be troubled,” she said.

“Corey,” said Judy, “what happened to the other Corey? I mean, did you do to him what he did to the others?”

I shrugged. I could remember that I woke up and knew that there was danger, knew that my dream about the Remover had become reality. And I knew that I could somehow remove the Remover by touching him, and…thinking him away. And I did so. But for some reason, I didn’t think that what I had done was the same as what he had done.

“Clearly he did not,” said Lucinda. “If he had, we would have no memory of the other Corey.”

I nodded. She was right.

She was right, but of course none of us knew what any of this meant.

“Corey,” Lucinda continued, “How did you come to be able to remove the other Corey? And how is it that you’ve been cured of your autism?”

As I said, it wasn’t precisely accurate to say that I had been cured, but this was not the time to split hairs.

Lucinda had not asked a yes or no question, but I knew how to answer it. I started out of the office, and beckoned to the others to follow me. I walked across the common room and into the dark kitchen. The dark didn’t bother me, but someone behind me turned on the light. I unbolted the door to the back porch and stepped through. The night was still, sultry for such a dry climate. It was quiet: the crickets had given up their work hours before.

Through the screen, I could see the light in the distance. It no longer blazed like the afternoon sun; it had mellowed to something on the order of a half dozen full moons. I unlatched the screen door and led the lot of us into the backyard. We all stood there for a long while, studying this scene of a yet another dream that had become reality.

It was a city.

In fact, it was the city, the one that Judy and someone had painted in their mural. It was exactly where it should be, nestled in the bowl in the front face of the mountain. From this distance, we couldn’t make out the details of the skyline, but it didn’t matter. We all knew the city as it was depicted in the mural, and we all knew that the mural was a perfect match. We had seen this city with its glowing white towers many times before. And in fact, I had been there just a few moments before. I said goodbye to Angela and watched that city dissolve around me, making adjustments within myself all the while — awakening to this new life.

Yes, we all knew that city. We had all been there many times. In dreams.

September 14, 2004


Virgin Galactic

No, that headline is not a joke.

Sir Richard Branson today announced that he had signed a licensing deal to create a fleet of spacecraft offering commercial flights to space by 2007-8.

Speaking at the launch of Virgin Galactic Airways, Sir Richard said he planned to invest 60m in space tourism, making it accessible to the general public.

Branson has signed a deal with Mojave Aerospace Ventures and plans to build a fleet of spcaecraft which will take up to five passengers into space at a time, at a cost of about 115,000. He estimates that his fleet will carry 3,000 amateur astronauts into space over a period of five years. The first of them will be, of course, Sir Richard Branson.

Whether this idea takes off or not, the idea of space tourism just a got a whole lot more mainstream. And somebody needs to tell Branson about this idea.

September 13, 2004


Welcome (Back) to The Speculist

[NOTE: I'm leaving this message at the top for the next week or so. There is new stuff below!]

We're back.

Myriad porn spams and a corrupt Bekeley database couldn't keep this site down for long. We are back in action. We'll be migrating material from the old site to this new location over the next few months. So if you're not finding what you're looking for here, try here.

Commenting now requires TypePad registration. Chek it out. It's free! Registering will enable you to write comments for many blogs, not just The Speculist.

Oh, and um...live to see it!

PS: Don't forget to update your bookmarks and blogrolls. That new address is:

http://www.blog.speculist.com


Salvaging Genesis

Check this out.

NASA scientists said they have recovered some critical pieces of the Genesis space capsule intact and are optimistic the wreckage will yield valuable information about the origins of the solar system.

"We should be able to meet many, if not all, of our science goals," physicist Roger C. Wiens of the Los Alamos National Laboratory said Friday.

Apparently, the individual compartments that were used to gather sample atoms from around the solar systm got fused together pretty well, but atoms are kind of hard to destroy. So it's possible that just a few of them will be sufficient to give the scientists the information they're looking for.

Here's hoping

Meanwhile, NASA continues to investigate why the parachute didn't open. While they're reviewing the matter, they should consider giving some kind of award to the design team for building a probe that can still yield results after such a traumatic crash. And the FAA ought to think about hiring these folks to help them design their next generation of black boxes.



Nanotechnology to Take On cancer

This is pretty cool:

In the fight against cancer, some scientists are thinking small. Really, really small.

The National Cancer Institute launches a five-year, $144 million project today to investigate using nanotechnology, the science of building devices on the atomic level, to fight cancer.

The treatments that will be looked at include, among other approaches, the use of gold nanoshells that "cook" tumor cells to death and nanoparticles that deliver chemotherapy on a cell-by-cell basis. We've been tracking these developments over the past year (here and here, for example). It's gratifying to see these lines of research get additional funding. Moreover, with the blessing of the National Cancer Institute, it would seem that nanomedicine is well on its way to being mainstream.

(via Kurzweil AI)

September 11, 2004


9/11

Below are my reflections on September 11 from last year, slightly revised. It occurs to me on rereading this essay that there are probably some who would find the dreaded "hubris" in our assertion that the world is getting better all the time. Thinking back on the horror of that day, the optimistic worldview, even that of the serious optimist, seems hard to defend.

Has the world become a better place since September 11, 2001? That, after all, is the position that the optimist would be called on to defend. But I'm not sure the question is for us to answer. I would leave it to those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And even if they tell us that the world has gotten no better, that there is still strife and violence and uncertainty, that they continue to be victims of powers who care nothing about them, I would only say this (as I did in response to the Iraqi soccer coach who complained that his country is "still occupied" and "not free"): these people certainly seem to enjoy their freedom of speech. I wonder how long they've had it?



This weblog is dedicated to the idea that the future is open; it is something that we can create together. I've written recently about the kinds of changes that can occur that serve as signposts dividing the past from the present, or the present from the future. In the face of those kinds of changes, it often seems that we have no choice, no say in what might happen next. Here's an image that will always haunt me, something that occurred in the final hours of the previous era.

It was September 9, 2001.

My wife and I were wrapping up our weekend in Manhattan. We had done a little shopping, eaten some good food, seen a few sights. We were on the Statue of Liberty tour boat heading back towards Battery Park. The World Trade Center loomed before us.

It's too bad, I observed, that we didn't make time to visit the observation deck on top of one of the towers. On a clear day like this, the view would be spectacular.

Maybe next time, my wife said. We had already discussed coming back with my daughter to do more sightseeing.

Sure, I said. After all, it's not like those towers are going anywhere. If those bastards couldn't take them down with their car bomb, I doubt anything will ever take them down.

I'm not sure why I said it. Earlier that day, we had walked past a small exhibit commemorating the bombing and its victims. I guess it was on my mind.

Two days later, I was working at home in Denver. I went downstairs to pour myself a second cup of coffee and decided (against any kind of precedent) to turn on the TV and see what the headlines were. There were the towers — the invincible towers of recent memory — now seen from a different angle, with thick, black smoke billowing out of each.

They would only be standing a short while longer.

Maybe there was no way to foresee the horrible events of that day (although others did.) But I had something to learn about making facile statements to the effect that things will work out, as well as arrogant assumptions that things will not change.

The future is open. It is something we can create together. We must continue to try to do so, with our hopes as high as ever. And our eyes wide open.

But wait. If we take such a simplistic approach, don't we then run the risk of engaging in hubris? Wasn't it hubris, after all, that lead us to build those towers in the first place? I think not. I may have been guilty of hubris in the poorly considered statements I made on the ferry. But there was no overbearing pride or presumption inherent in building the World Trade Center. The people who went to work there that day were not guilty of arrogance. Nobody had it coming to them. The events of that day did not reflect divine justice handed down from Mt. Olympus; they were the acts of psychotic murderous fanatics.

The World Trade Center was a glorious achievement. I hope that it's replacement proves to be just as glorious. Those who build it, like those who endeavor to achieve any great thing, will need to temper their ambition with caution against the harm that nature or evil men can do. But they must not, and we must not, temper our ambitions out of false humility or the fear of retribution from some deity so small and petty that he feels threatened by the works of humanity.

If anything, I think God laments the fact that, all too often, our thinking isn't nearly big enough.

September 10, 2004


Still a Mystery

The human brain remains a mystery, in spite of the major strides in understanding that we've made in recent years. Consider this report on the use of hypnosis to relieve the suffering of cancer patients:

Hypnosis can relieve suffering and improve the quality of life of cancer patients, researchers said on Thursday.

Although it has been used to help people to give up smoking, lose weight and overcome phobias, its real therapeutic potential is still untapped, they believe.

Dr Christina Liossi, of the University of Wales in Swansea, said there is medical evidence that hypnosis helps to relieve the depression, nausea, vomiting and pain suffered by cancer patients.

There have also been suggestions that hypnosis could increase survival in patients with the disease, but she added there is not enough evidence to support them.

Liossi goes on to say that it has been established that hypnosis can affect the immune system, although unfortunately, the article does not cite any references for this. It's one thing to say that hypnosis might alleviate pain. We all know that pain is, truly, "all in your head." But the suggestion that hypnosis might increase cancer survivability or that it can somehow work directly on the immune system seems an entirely different proposition. Hypnosis almost begins to sound kind of spooky or magical.

Of course, there's no reason to interpret such results that way. If the only physiological effect of hypnosis is pain reduction, that alone could account for greater rates of cancer survivability and a strengthened immune system. A body that endures less pain is a body that has been subjected to lower levels of stress, and therefore has additional strength to work through the course of a disease. It seems likely that a stronger, less-taxed body would also have a better immune system.

It's surprising that we don't hear more about a treatment option that offers such benefits. One of the researchers, Professor John Gruzelier of Imperial College London, suggests that the silence has a simple explanation: we don't know how hypnosis works. The medical establishment is understandably shy about dealing with treatments that seem to work, but that can't be explained.

Gruzelier is using brain-imaging techniques to study the changes that occur within the frontal lobe when an individual is hypnotized. Here's hoping that his work helps make the brain a little less mysterious.

September 09, 2004


ITF #147

In the Future...

...robots could need deodorant.


Futurist: M104 member Robert Hinkley.

September 08, 2004


Genesis Crashes

And M104 member Chris Hall sums it up on one word.


Stillness Part V, Chapter 44

Corey was there, in a vast city square that glowed with its own light.

White structures with domed towers surrounded the plaza on three sides. The fourth side sloped away to the shore of a small mountain lake. The air was sweet and clean. There was a fountain there, blasting water into the air in impossible geometric patterns. The fountain’s water, like that of the lake, was tinted pink. It was surrounded by a rose garden, the roses actually some other flower from some other place and time. The blooms were red and gold and green.

He had been here before, sometimes with some of the other children, sometimes alone. None of them were with him this time, but Corey was not alone.

She was there with him, as she had been a few times before. They were sitting together on a stone bench facing the fountain.

What are you called, [dear-young-one]?

She spoke directly to his mind. There were no words, only pieces of meaning. But Corey understood her perfectly.

“I’m Corey.”

It was strange that in the other dreams, he had never told her his name. And he had never asked for hers. But those were other dreams, and this was this one.

Why are we? she asked him.

Corey considered this.

“Why are we what?”

She smiled.

She was achingly beautiful. At first glance, she looked like a statue sculpted from white marble. But the color and the texture were deceptive. She could move. And when she did, the marble showed itself to be as supple than human flesh. Even her eyes were full of life. And her hair — which was not individual strands, but rather a sculpted approximation thereof, all of one piece — flowed and waved perfectly with the slight breeze. Nor was she actually white. She shimmered with her own light, tens of thousands of hues subtly playing out in rapid succession. Corey tried to follow the pattern. He could watch it for a moment, but the shifting colors always blurred and merged back into white. He realized that is wasn’t meant for his eyes. Or for his brain.

Too human, both of them.

No, she said, bringing him back. Not why are [we-inclusive-of-you].

She made a sweeping gesture toward her city.

Why are [we-not-inclusive-of-you]?

Corey nodded.

“Why are you?

Why are we? she agreed.

He shrugged.

“Why are you what?”

She sighed without impatience.

Why are we. Why?

“You mean why are you here? Why do you exist?”

You speak those questions as though they were the same. They are not the same.

“You want to know why I’ve brought you here,” he said. He stood up from the bench and looked around the city.

“Have I?” he asked after a moment. “Is this real?”

She looked at him, puzzled.

I have memories, real memories, of your previous visits. But all of those are still memories…do you understand?

“Still memories,” he repeated.

And he did understand.

“Memories from the stillness,” he said.

She nodded.

But your memories are not from the stillness. They represent occurrence. Just as this moment is of occurrence, mutual occurrence.

“But…” Corey sat down again. “But if this moment is ‘of occurrence,’ isn’t it real?”

Yes. For me, the occurrence is here at the fountain. For you, the occurrence is in your mind while you sleep far away. There is congruence between the two occurrences.

“I see,” said Corey. “I am dreaming. None of this is real.”

No. You are dreaming, and it is real. Don’t confuse yourself with false dichotomies. You have to learn to make true distinctions.

Corey considered this.

“But I’m not real,” he insisted “Not here. Not now.”

He was only dreaming. He would wake up any moment and it would all be gone.

But no, that wasn’t what she said. He would wake up and be back in bed, and she would still be here. There. In this place.

I am real, she repeated. Why, Corey? Why do you [burn] so?

“Why do I what? Burn?”

She nodded.

“I don’t understand.”

To desire what you do not have. To be filled with pain by desire. To toil to make the desired thing real.

“Why do I do that?”

He watched the water shooting out of the fountain in great ropes that somehow spiraled around each other as they descended back into the pool.

“All humans burn. It’s what we do.”

She looked at him for a moment.

I see.

“Don’t your people…don’t you burn?”

We do not. We desire what we have; we have what we desire. This is congruence. We labor but we do not toil. We seek but we do not strive. We suffer but we do not know pain.

“That doesn’t make any sense.”

He looked at her for a long moment.

“What exactly are you, anyway?” he asked.

She smiled at the question, but did not respond. She stood up and walked to the edge of the flower garden. Bending down, she stretched her hand out to one of the green blooms. She gently stroked the stem of the flowering plant. New blooms appeared along the path traced by her finger. She then took hold of another stem and did the same. She studied both plants for a moment, then added one more flower to the first.

She turned to Corey and smiled.

It is marvelous. To exist in this way. To truly occur.

Corey could sense her joy; it welled up within him.

“I guess it is marvelous. But not always. I mean…you…have it pretty good, here.”

She nodded.

And you are happy to be here. Happy to be with me?

Corey didn’t have to think about that.

“Yes. Can I stay here?”

You are here only by way of congruence. Do you wish to remain in a perpetual dream?

“Why not? What difference would it make?”

Perhaps it would make little difference to you, but what of your friends?

“They could visit me here. Maybe in time they would come here to live with me.”

Whether it was in the shimmering of the light that flowed from her or in the way she stood before him, Corey could sense a subtle change in her manner. There was no alteration to the serenity of her expression. But she did change, somehow, undeniably. She grew stern

This could be accomplished. You could remove your friends from other modes of occurrence and have them join you permanently in your dream. Is this what the Other, the one who resembles you, has done? Is this the mode of occurrence that the other has given to [he-the-memory-of-whom-has-been-removed]?

Her words were like blades of ice that ripped through the moment, through Corey himself. The peace and serenity were gone and — for an instant — he was no longer in the magnificent city, and she was no longer with him. He returned to a dark place, a dream place from a few moments before. It was a strange nighttime place where the air was foul and damp and where there was nothing to see and where he was something less than himself. And then there was something to see. And then again there was nothing, all in an instant. In that instant, the face of the other — his own face — flashed before him and he recoiled.

“Why have I brought you here?” he wanted to ask, but there was no time. The other didn’t want to answer, and then he was gone.

Gone from Corey’s dream, but to where? Where do dreams go when you’ve finished with them? To nowhere, to nothing. But not Corey’s dreams, not always. Sometimes they took a back door into what she called occurrence and what Corey called the real world.

“He’s real,” Corey said, back on the stone bench and looking her in the eye.

She nodded.

Why did you give him occurrence, Corey?

“I — I don’t know. I didn’t mean to. I don’t think I meant to.”

He stood up and took a step in her direction.

“It was a dream. Why do people do what they do in dreams?”

You were [burning]. One friend lost, others damaged. You wanted to undo what you had done.

“Only instead I just made things worse.”

She said nothing.

“I should have gone to you first.”

She approached Corey, and took him by the hand.

This, too, is marvelous.

“What is?”

She smiled.

How foolish you are.

Corey could sense no irony. He was foolish. It was marvelous. He doubted she could say anything other than what she meant.

She led him a short way into the garden. The fountain churned and sprayed before them.

Do you know about the spiral, Corey?

He shook his head.

As he watched the fountain, the intertwined braids of rope water began to merge into single strand. Tiny rivulets, strings of water, shot off and re-merged with the this single strand of water, which curved itself into an enormous loop-de-loop, repeating itself with smaller and smaller loops as it wound down into the pool.

No, Corey realized, that wasn’t it. The water wasn’t winding down into the pool. It was uncoiling up out of the pool, winding out into the clear sky overhead, seemingly into infinity.

This approximates, in three dimensions, the shape of occurrence. Do you understand?

Corey shook his head.

The stillness around the spiral is all that can occur. The stillness that the spiral touches is what does occur. Do you understand that?

Corey stared at the spiral. Slowly he began to nod.

“I think I understand. Everything in the spiral is what happens. Everything outside the spiral is what could have happened, but didn’t.”

Correct.

“So what is inside the spiral exists, and what’s outside it doesn’t exist.”

Incorrect. To occur is not the same as to exist. All possibilities exist. Not all possibilities occur.

“Wait a minute…what is this a picture of? The universe?”

In the stillness, there are a [non-finite] number of [natural-law-cluster-singularities], the entities you call universes. Within the spiral, there are fewer, but it is still a very large number.

Corey thought about this.

“So the stillness is the whole set of possible universes? And the spiral is the whole set of realized universes?”

She nodded.

Of course, these are only the crude approximations that your [semantic-mind-interface] will allow.

He watched the spiral for a moment.

“Its shape appears to be the product of a simple mathematical formula. Does it extend out infinitely?”

It may. The formula you mentioned dictates that it will. But only an infinite being could give a definite answer. A [non-finite] being might experience a small measure of certainty on the question, but such a being would probably not be able to convey an answer to entities having our level of occurrence. Besides, there are none around to ask.

“What’s an infinite being? You mean God?”

Somehow, without moving or changing her facial expression, she shrugged.

You use a word whose meaning is unclear to you. How can I answer?

“You mean the word is unclear to you?”

Yes, it is unclear to me, but that is not what I meant.

“Well, then what’s a non-finite being?”

A [non-finite] being is a being who is approaching infinity and who, from the perspective of entities such as [you-and-I], may or may not have yet arrived.

Corey looked at her, then turned and looked at the fountain. He decided to leave the question of infinite and non-finite beings alone for the present.

“So if the shape of the spiral determines what occurs, and that shape is mathematically determined, then is everything that happens pre-determined?”

Look deep within the spiral, Corey. What do you see?

Corey looked. The braided rope of water was made up of thousands of strands of water, each of which was made up of many thousands of strings of water. As he looked more closely, Corey could see that the strings themselves were made up of spidery threads that weaved in and out of the strands. The threads were difficult to see. Each was itself a spiral, a perfect replica of the greater spiral. The surface of the rope was not smooth, as Corey had first supposed. It bristled with the motion of these spiral threads, some of which seemed to extend indefinitely beyond the surface of the rope.

“I see. The smaller spirals can be oriented in almost any direction. So the spiral can touch random places within the stillness; random events can occur.”

Apparently random. At the scale at which beings such as [you-and-I] have occurrence, there are genuine surprises and what appear to be genuine choices.

“Freedom?”

She [shrugged] again.

“When I brought you here…before, you weren’t inside the spiral, were you?”

All that occurs emerges from stillness. But the spiral would never have found us without your interference.

“I don’t understand.”

I have shown you the true and original shape of occurrence. The shape that was intended. But now the spiral is in flux between that shape and another. Behold the other.

The pattern she had created with the water began to shift as she spoke. The great curving arm of the spiral which projected up from the fountain’s pool in a seemingly infinite skyward arc turned abruptly back on itself at a sharp angle. The symmetry of the spiral was destroyed. The water did not flow back to the ground; it simply stopped.

Corey studied the new shape for a moment.

“This is bad,” he finally said.

She nodded.

“Does it mean what I think it means?”

What do you think it means?

“It means that the stillness has some kind of boundary, and that the spiral has been moved beyond that boundary.”

Is being moved. Yes.

“You said the spiral is in flux. Which shape is it right now?”

[Both-and-neither.] This is a foolish question. ‘Right now’ is a [makes-you-happy-story] that your people tell to themselves. There is no ‘right now.’

“Okay,” said Corey.

He blinked.

This was hard. Corey had only ever had conversations in dreams, and they weren’t usually this long. Or this difficult.

“But the spiral is going to be one way or the other eventually, right?”

[You-and-I] do not currently observe resolution of the flux. I expect that [you-and-I] will observe this resolution, or that it will be observable.

“In the future.”

You are speaking incoherence, [dear-young-one].

“I guess ‘the future’ is a makes-me-happy-story?”

She smiled.

“So what if it ends up with this shape? What happens when the spiral goes past the end of the stillness?”

There are two possibilities. The first is that there will be total occurrence. Existence will be freed from the bondage of the spiral and all will be realized.

Corey considered this.

“So everything that’s in the stillness will happen? Your people will be real?”

Yes. They will have occurrence.

“Along with everything else that ever existed and everything that never existed.”

She nodded.

Corey studied the fountain for a long while.

“So is that a good thing or a bad thing?”

She smiled once again. Corey couldn’t help but return it.

“I guess I’m being foolish again.”

She took his hand and looked into his eyes. She somehow seemed a little sad.

You are a remarkable being, [dear-young-one]. I’m glad to know you.

“Thanks. May I ask what you are called?”

She shimmered more brightly for a moment. Her name flashed through Corey’s mind like a fragment of a tune almost recognized. There were no words, no sounds, no images to approximate it.

Corey shook his head.

“I think I’ll have to give you a nickname.”

Yes. We have this, the [name-between-friends.] Choose whatever name you like.

“But I already know. You’re Angela. I’ve always thought of you as Angela.”

You take me for an angel?

”How can you not know what God is, but know what an angel is?

I am no more certain of what you mean by one term than the other, but uncertainty is more acceptable with lesser things than with greater.

Corey nodded. Somehow that made perfect sense.

“So what’s the other possibility, Angela?”

Total non-occurrence. In ancient times, my people called this the [all-death.]

The all-death. The idea was familiar to Corey. It had been buried deep within him for a long time. “Everybody dies.”

Someone had said that.

Who?

“So your people have existed — I mean occurred — before now. It’s just that occurrence is new for you personally.”

No. All memory of my people, all their history, all that I know…these are all still memories.

“Did I make this happen?”

She smiled again.

In a sense, yes. Corey. Look deep into the spiral. What do you see?

Corey looked again at the winding rope with its braids, strings, and threads of water. It seemed that nothing had changed. Then he saw it: just before the sharp curving away, there was a tiny rivulet of threads jutting out from the spiral and crisscrossing each other repeatedly before merging back into it. They were distinctly not spiral-shaped.

“What is that?”

We do not know. It is the cause of the spiral’s corruption, and it is also the cause of you, Corey. This disturbance has brought you out of the stillness. And you are a remarkable being, [most-loved], one who can direct the spiral where he will. You are finite, and a [being-of-great-limitation]. And foolish, bedsides. But not so limited as most of your kind.

The time is now short, very short. Soon your friends will be no longer. You must choose. Awaken to yourself and help them, or remain in dreams and leave them to the other.

Corey hadn’t expected this. It was a strange choice to have to make. Awaken to himself? It was what he had always wanted. To be awake, among other people, and truly be there.

“I’ll go back,” he said. “I’ll wake up. But what can I do?”

You may undo that which you have done. But there will be a price. You will lose your dreams. And you will no longer have the ability to change things. Not until you come to me.

“How will I do that?”

Look deep, Corey. Knowledge must be action. You will learn to awaken to yourself by doing it.

That didn’t really make sense to Corey, but somehow he knew that it was true.

“So will I see you again?”

Perhaps. But probably not in dreams, at least not dreams that are congruent with other modes of occurrence.

Corey nodded. From a long way off, he could hear the other children. They were singing.

No, not singing. Chanting. They were calling for him.

“I’ll miss you, Angela,” he said.

Then he was awake.


Left Behind

Bruce Sterling on the singularity:

The singularity's biggest flaw isn't that it's hard to imagine, but that it flatters its human inventors. We may be on the verge of an astounding breakthrough! Or, with equal likelihood, we may be at the edge of a new dark age of plagues, mass hunger, and climate destabilization. More likely yet, we live in a dull, self-satisfied, squalid eddy in history, blundering around with no concept of progress and no sense of direction. We have no idea what we really want from our own lives or from society. And no Moore's law rising majestically on any 2-D graph is ever going make us magnificent or spiritual when we lack the will, vision, and appetite for spiritual magnificence.

First, let me take issue. No matter how dull, squalid, and self-satisfied we may be as individuals — or even as a species, although I don't think we are — there's no way those adjectives can be applied to this era in history. There is simply too much going on. Even if we aren't doing it, even if technology is just evolving more or less "on its own" (which is kind of hard to picture) this is still an amazing period of change.

It's been suggested (slide 20) that the rate of technological change, not to mention the increase in the rate of technological change, has been fairly consistent irrepective of economic or political circumstances. If we face good times, we have spare resources to create new technologies. On the other hand, if the plagues, mass murder, and climate destabilization do show up, we'll desperately need new technologies to deal with each of them

So I think Sterling is off base on the signficiance of the current and coming periods in history. However, his question about whether we're ready to become supermen is an excellent one. After all, most of us are still trying to figure out what exactly it means to be human. How can we become superhumans or transhumans if we're not even clear on how to be plain old humans? That doesn't necessarily mean we aren't ready for the next stage. I didn't have a very good idea of what it meant to be a toddler while I was still a toddler, or even when I became a teenager. I'm not even sure I know now.

The next stage might very well hit us, ready or not, like puberty or menopause. Or maybe not. Maybe it will require, as Sterling said, a certain will, a certain vision, a certain appetite. And maybe we're not there yet.

Meanwhile, our silicon-based progeny continue to develop, with or without our help. They haven't reached the human level yet, but the expectation is that — once they do — they will grow well beyond the level of human intelligence very rapidly. Then the question will be whether they have the right stuff to grow into something else: not just smarter, better. There's no gaurantee that we can build the right vision and will into them, but for some reason I have this idea that it might be easier to give it to them than it would be to build it into ourselves.

If that were to turn out to be the case, we might be facing a future which isn't flattering to us at all. In this scenario, we stand by and watch while the computers become the transcendant beings that we believed it was our destiny to become.

Even if these meta-beings care for us and want the best for us, even if they want us to join them in the kind of existence that they have found, they might find that there is still an enormous gulf between the deepest desires of the human heart and the ability of the human will to make itself better. Our electronic descendants might decide to leave us alone in the hopes that we can eventually find our own way to where they are.

In his novel Till We Have Faces, C. S. Lewis retells the myth of Cupid and Psyche to illustrate the difference between the grasping, controlling need which passes for "love" in most human relationships, and the giving, sacrificial nature of spiritual love. One of the characters nurtures a long-term grudge against the gods which she is finally able to bring before them. It is only after she has made her case against them that she comes to a profound realization:

When the time comes to you at which you will be forced at last to utter the speech which has lain at the center of your soul for years, which you have, all that time, idiot-like, been saying over and over, you'll not talk about joy of words. I saw well why the gods do not speak to us openly, nor let us answer. Till that word can be dug out of us, why should they hear the babble that we think we mean? How can they meet us face to face till we have faces?

When the Singularity comes, we may be left behind by transcendant beings who want nothing more than to have us with them, but who can't or won't force us to be like them. The silence they leave would be as deep and utterly frustrating as that encountered by any of us who have ever cried out to heaven for answers...and in return heard nothing but the beating of our own hearts.

September 07, 2004


Note to the NSF:

Get your head out of the sand.

Or wherever it is you've got it.

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is calling on the National Science Foundation to stop ignoring the most significant implications of nanotechnology. Molecular manufacturing is going to happen whether the government decides to talk about it ahead of time or not. If the NSF wants to have any credibility on this subject — not to mention fulfill its mission — it's time to get serious.

September 06, 2004


Cold Fusion to Make a Comeback?

Cold Fusion, written off for more than a decade as junk science, is struggling to work its way back to respectability:

Later this month, the U.S. Department of Energy will receive a report from a panel of experts on the prospects for cold fusionthe supposed generation of thermonuclear energy using tabletop apparatus. It's an extraordinary reversal of fortune: more than a few heads turned earlier this year when James Decker, the deputy director of the DOE's Office of Science, announced that he was initiating the review of cold fusion science. Back in November 1989, it had been the department's own investigation that determined the evidence behind cold fusion was unconvincing. Clearly, something important has changed to grab the department's attention now.

Behind the scenes, scientists in many countries, but particularly in the United States, Japan, and Italy, have been working quietly for more than a decade to understand the science behind cold fusion. (Today they call it low-energy nuclear reactions, or sometimes chemically assisted nuclear reactions.) For them, the department's change of heart is simply a recognition of what they have said all alongwhatever cold fusion may be, it needs explaining by the proper process of science.

It's this sort of thing that makes predictions about future energy capacity and capabilities so difficult to predict. (For that matter, it's this sort of thing that makes the future in general so difficult to predict.) Cold Fusion may yet be a long way off, but the fact that it could be back on the table only goes to show the risks involved in assessing the future based on present capabilities.

We've seen a lot of discussion in the blogosphere recently about the viability of changing to a "hydrogen economy." The big problem with hydrogen is extracting it from water (or some other source, although water is probably the most likely.) A lot has been written about the impracticality of solar power, wind power, nuclear power, etc.

Personally, I'm quite partial to this model of using wind to extract hydrogen from water. It answers many of the objections which have been raised to wind.

But I haven't seen much written about cold fusion, either as a direct energy source or as a means of enabling hydrogen as an energy source. A while back, Steven Den Beste had this to say on fusion:

Wake me when it actually works.

Well, we won't nudge him just yet.

(Via Geekpress.)

September 04, 2004


Alternatives to "AI"

In response to yesterday's piece on virtual astronauts, Kathy writes:

The virtual astronaut story has this quote:"HAL was a vision of artificial intelligenceand Im not a big fan of AI. Never have been," [Peter] Plantec said. "What we really need is to fake conscious behavior so that we humans can have the emotional relationship with machines. You cant do that with AI."

Thank you! My enhanced human character, Asimov, in The Council, and my robot character, Colter, have both recoiled from the use of the term "AI." I rejected the concept on an emotional and intuitive level. Peter Plantec helps me understand that there is an alternative to AI. I wouldn't term it "fake" conscious behavior, however. Would the term "synthetic" be more appropriate? A synthesis isn't merely artificial, it's a recombination of essential elements to make something new. And if it's real, it isn't "fake."

I think Plantec is making a distinction without a difference. Much current AI research is about getting computers to "fake" intelligent, interactive behavior. That's the concept that lies behind AI chatbots like Alice and Jabberwacky (and my buddy Ramona).

The word "artificial" has negative overtones because we think of things like artificial flowers and artificial flavors. But if you take it back to its roots, it means, "made by human artifice." So Michelangelo's David and Van Gogh's Starry Night are both "artificial."

The dream of AI is the ancient myth of Pygmalion — the artist who makes a statue that comes to life.

"Synthetic" intelligence would involve merging human and machine intelligence. To a certain extent, neural nets have already begun to accomplish this. Brain scans will move us further in this direction. The uploaded human intelligence I described as an ideal astronaut would be synthetic.

Ultimately, the distinctions between intelligence mapped out through human effort and intelligence occurring in or replicated from a human brain will probably not be that important. In the future, synthesized organic and mechanical intelligence will be the norm, making a term like AI obsolete. However, there will be a term for those who seek to keep their human intelligence "pure" — MOSH, Mostly Original Substrate Human.

How would Asimov and Colter feel about that one?


SpaceShipOne Going for the Prize

We are now 15 minutes from launch. I'm watching live here.

September 03, 2004


Virtual Astronauts

I love it that this story comes from right here in Colorado:

Better make room for an extra crewmember aboard any spaceship heading outward. This person wont require food, oxygen or water, nor even need to buckle up for safety. The tag-along traveler could, however, be a lifesaver in terms of getting the expedition to and from a celestial destination.

Roll out the welcome mat for the virtual astronaut and enter the 3D space of Peter Plantec, a consultant in virtual human design and animation, as well as a leading expert on visual entertainment. He also initiated the "Sylvie" project -- the first commercially available virtual human interface.

If you can make them smart enough, virtual humans have it all over the meat-based kind*. They don't need elaborate life-support systems, they can survive any g-force you'd care to throw at them, and they can last thousands, tens of thousands, millions of years.

The folks in Telluride are working on building virtual humans from scratch, but that might not be necessary. Eventually, we should be able to make virtual humans by uploading human minds into computers.

I've just been reading a book called Eater by Gregory Benford in which an uploaded human personality is sent to engage "face-to-face" with an intelligent alien lifeform which resides in (or rather, is made up of) the magnetic fields surrounding a black hole. Virtual humans would be perfect for this kind of high-risk assignment. After all, it's a lot easier to come up with ways to get a computer close to a black hole — or even someplace more mundane like the corona of the sun or deep into the atmosphere of Jupiter — than it would be a human.

However, what fun would Star Trek be if the crew were nothing but a bunch of computer programs? On the other hand, what if they didn't know?

Morpheus: So now you must choose. Red pill, or blue?

Kirk: I'm not interested in any damn pills. I want to know how you got on this ship, mister!

* Mmmmmmmmm...meat-based.


ITF #146

In the Future...

...our cars will make disparaging remarks about front-seat drivers.

Via Kurzweil AI

September 02, 2004


Bootstrapping to Space

Sir Richard Branson and Spaceship model

Those who predicted SpaceShipOne would usher in a new space age for the private sector got it right.

Commercial space flight is big business already. Virgin Atlantic Airlines is creating a new firm, Virgin Galactic, to start providing suborbital space flights by 2007. Virgin Galactic will be using technology it has licensed from the SpaceShipOne project for $25 million dollars.

Like the zero G flights we reported a couple of weeks ago, there won't be an economy class on these flights. Each of five passengers will pay about $207,000 for their ticket to ride. It was not reported whether this price includes the training that each of these astro-tourists will need.

Why should we normal folks care if the jet-set becomes the astro-set?

Branson said he planned to use the proceeds from the first well-heeled customers to bring prices down in the next few years to make space travel affordable to the regular tourist.

"The orbital hotel will happen," he said.

Virgin expects 3,000 customers in the first five years.



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