It’s a fairly simple story, really. From the time we figured out that those oddly angled thumbs of ours prove useful when it comes to making stuff and doing stuff, our story – not necessarily the story of any particular people or nation, but the story of all of us – has been about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. That’s what we wanted. That’s what we’ve been trying to get, even though we weren’t able to articulate that exact formula until the very recent past, and even then only a relative few of us have explicitly endorsed it.

Although we’ve always wanted these three things, we haven’t been particularly good at securing them for ourselves. In fact, there’s been a long pattern of some of us working against the rest of us – so we end up with a few achieving some measure of liberty and happiness by depriving others of their ability to enjoy these things, or by depriving them of their lives.

But we are only part of the problem. In seeking out life, liberty, and happiness, humanity has faced three formidable enemies:

Oppression
Poverty
Death

Oppression and poverty stand in the way of liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Death seeks to deprive us of all the good things we strive for by removing the medium in which we might enjoy them: our lives.

Throughout most of our history, two of these three enemies would have dogged humanity no matter how nice we were to each other. Human beings can subject each other to poverty and to death, but death would still stalk us even if we didn’t stalk each other – and the world would still have failed to provide for all our needs (much less wants) even if the strong had never preyed upon the weak. Oppression, however, is a purely human affair. Oppression is entirely self-inflicted. The natural world might challenge us in many ways, but it’s shown no inclination towards enslaving us. It doesn’t imprison us for expressing our opinions, take our homes away in the name of the “common good,” or tell us whom we may marry. It doesn’t collect taxes from us. It doesn’t issue traffic citations, make us fill out forms, or forbid our eating trans-fats.

Our ability to eliminate oppression is entirely up to us. Today is the anniversary of a group of human beings deciding to throw off what seems now, in retrospect, a fairly mild form of oppression – mild, at least, compared to some of the horrors that our fellow human beings have suffered both before and since. In framing their explanation as to why they were doing what they were doing, the founders gave us the formulation of “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” explaining that these are not just good things, they are fundamental rights. No individual, no nation, no philosophy that seeks to deprive us of these things – however mildly or however horribly – can ever be tolerated.

What they started 231 years ago today still goes on. Can humanity overcome oppression? Those of us who are celebrating today, and many who have since followed our example, are living proof that the answer is yes.

What, then, about the other two great enemies?

In fact, we have made significant gains against both over the same two centuries. People live much longer and healthier lives now than they ever have before, and they have access to more material goods and information than was even imaginable a short time ago (on the human scale.) And those of us who watch these areas closely know that our progress to date is only the beginning. In the near future, technology can provide us with lives free from any threat of disease or aging and with material abundance beyond what we have ever dared hope.

Yes, technology can provide those things; I don’t say that it will. Just as human beings can free themselves from oppression, though we may not all choose to. The capability is in our hands, or will be soon. What we need is the recognition of that capability, and the will to realize it.

So let’s take it from the top…

We hold these truths to be self-evident:

Oppression sucks
Poverty sucks
Death sucks

…and go from there.

Posted by Phil Bowermaster at 07:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This Reuters article:
Centennial time capsule car found ruined | Oddly Enough | Reuters

Got me thinking about a couple of things. First, how might the time capsule have been done better (please confine speculation to approximately mid-century technology), and second, what would constitute

"an advanced product of American industrial ingenuity with the kind of lasting appeal that will still be in style 50 years from now."

with respect to early twenty-first century technology?

Please discuss in the comments.

P.S. I think I'll do some checking into how the economics of the capsule contents might have been improved. I'll let you know if anything particularly interesting comes of that.

UPDATE (Moments later): a bit of searching yields a price range of about $900 to $11,000 for similar era Belvederes in conditions ranging from semi-restored to ... iffy. A restored 1956 done by hot-rod legend Boyd Coddington's shop goes for $29,500

UPDATE FROM STEPHEN:

I'm reminded of Doc Brown's 70 year preservation of his time traveling Delorean:

Notice how this was portrayed in Back to the Future III. Dr. Brown put the vehicle up on pylons. It's covered. And it's in a sealed room.

A mine would be far superior to a natural cave because caves tend to be damp (they're usually formed by water). The preserver could choose a place in the mine where drainage is assured. Barring a cave-in or the renewed mining activities, this sort of time capsule would be perfect.

But even as portrayed in BTTF III, certain parts - like the rubber wheels - didn't fare so well. Even a carefully preserved car would need a lot of work before it would be ready for the highway.

Posted by Michael S. Sargent at 09:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

I will be attending this conference Monday and Tuesday of next week:

For two days in May, three hundred librarians will meet with visionaries from the disciplines of anthropology, architecture, public policy and science to discuss the future of libraries. By looking outside of the library, we seek to explore unique ideas that will make the difference. Imagine merging information, inspiration and imagination to transform the way we look at our future. And then working together to build a solid foundation that will serve as a concrete plan with which to move forward.

The theme of the conference is an evocative one: Imagination to Transformation. Or if I may paraphrase: "live to see it."

Speakers at the conference include Ray Kurzweil, Mary Catherine Bateson, Bob Treadway, and others. Should be a fascinating couple of days.

Part of the program will also involve an exercise derived from our Seven Questions About the Future. Remember those? We had a lot of great responses back in the day.

I saw a good show on PBS last night about an a villa excavated some time ago in Herculaneum (Pompeii's upscale neighbor) where a library of more than 1800 ancient manuscripts was found, each one rolled up tight and toasted by Vesuvius. The efforts of scholars over the past couple hundred years to unroll (much less to read) these ancient books have been nothing short of heroic. There was initially hope that a lost tragedy of Sophocles or dialog of Plato might be found among these books; so far no such luck. But as modern chemistry makes it easier to unroll them, and new imaging technology makes it easier (and in many cases, possible) to read some part of them, we are learning quite a bit about the school of Epicurean philosophy to which they apparently belonged.

One of the papyri from Herculaneum

When picturing the library of the future, it's hard not imagine some kind of Google interface connecting everything ever published to everything else ever published via logical, cognitive, and semantic linking schemes that we can hardly imagine now. But I think the tireless efforts to decipher these burnt manuscripts give us another hint as to the role that libraries will continue to play. Libraries aren't just collections of books -- they are a link with the past. When ancient books such as these are found, it's as though some piece of the past that was lost has been restored to us.

This is also why the destruction of a great library -- such as occurred in Alexandria at some point 1500-1800 years ago -- represents such a tremendous loss. It's as though some part of the past has been blotted out.

Libraries are the original databases and the original time machines. It will be very interesting spending a couple of days getting a handle on where libraries are going -- and how in the future they will be even more effective at showing us where we've been.

Posted by Phil Bowermaster at 05:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

`Bear in mind then, that Brag is a good dog, but Holdfast is a better. Bear that in mind, will you?' repeated Mr Jaggers, shutting his eyes and nodding his head at Joe, as if he were forgiving him something. `Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has Great Expectations.'

Dickens, Great Expectations

In the upcoming current edition of FastForward Radio, Stephen and I spend some time talking about our recent discussion about The Secret, and what our views on that matter have to say about where The Speculist fits on a scale from the completely skeptical to the completely mystical/credulous. Without giving too much away about a show that's still in production that you can just go listen to, I will just say that at this site, we are quick to entertain any idea that entertains us, but we don't spend a lot of time on ideas that don't have a solid basis in science and technology.

Which isn't to say that science and technology are the only worthwhile subjects that might be discussed. The folks who write for The Speculist would probably have a lot to say about religion, for example -- seeing as we are mostly people of faith -- but along with politics, it is one of the two topics we generally avoid. (With a few notable exceptions.) Those subjects are taboo not because they aren't interesting or because we wouldn't have a lot to say about them, but rather because:

1. They already get plenty of coverage elsewhere in the blogosphere, and

2. They tend to take over, leaving little time or room for other discussions.

Anyway, there are plenty of other topics that we haven't spent a lot of time on, except to have some fun with them. Things like UFOs, for example. We don't write about UFOs because they aren't particularly interesting to us; and they aren't particularly interesting to us because we don't think there's much of anything there. The real world can prove much more exhilarating than imaginary substitutes. Take sea monsters: an actual sea monster captures the imagination in a way that the mythical one can't.

Likewise, The Secret offers us a world of infinite possibility accessible by means of the fact that our minds control physical reality. That's nice, but speaking as someone not yet thoroughly convinced that my mind does control physical reality, I am nonetheless astounded by the future of limitless possibility that lies before us. In one of the earliest entries at The Speculist, written about three and a half years ago, I dashed off a list of items that I believed we have a pretty good shot at being able to live to see. At the time, I labeled these items the "extremely good news."

On the one hand, that's correct. It is good news that all of these items lie within the possibility space of humanity. But on the other hand, there's nothing particularly extreme about this list. These are just a few possibilities that lie far beyond the scope of what most practitioners of The Secret ever think about, and yet they lie well within the scope of what is attainable by humanity. These are not our Great Expectations; they're just our reasonable expectations.

Preserving and Nurturing the Biosphere

1. Methods of production that generate zero pollutants

2. Energy sources that produce zero pollutants

3. Reversing of previous environmental damage

4. Human population levels with zero negative environmental impact

5. Preservation of natural habitat for all living species

6. The long-term survival of all living species

7. The retrieval of lost species

8. The creation of new species and new biospheres

Standards of Living

1. Eradication of hunger worldwide

2. Adequate clean water, housing, clothing, for all

3. Medical care for all

4. Access to technology and knowledge for all who want it

5. Total economic independence for individuals and groups who desire it

Indefinite Human Lifespan

1. Eradication of aging and infectious disease

2. Quick, effective treatment for any kind of cancer

3. Effective prevention/cures for heart disease, diabetes, other chronic diseases

4. Suspension of life not sustainable by current means

5. The transfer of human consciousness to new media

Work

1. Work necessary for economic viability, not for economic survival

2. Continued blurring of line between work and play

3. Full immersion VR to eliminate distance

4. Artificial Intelligences to assist us in work

Recreation

1. Artificial Intelligences to entertain and befriend us

2. Full immersion VR to simulate any experience

3. Consumer model of entertainment rivaled by producer/participant model

(Amazing how much things can change in such a short period of time. Look at item 3 in the immediately preceding category. I'd say we're well on our way with that one.)

Stephen was taken to task in the comments section of the aforelinked discussion of The Secret for suggesting that a person's goals should be "realistic." But I think he would agree that everything on this list is not only realistic, but quite reasonable. With a future this bright within our grasp, who needs spooky magic powers?

Posted by Phil Bowermaster at 07:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

A few items to ponder:

1. Will fab technology render life meaningless?

2. Will Mexico become a US protectorate? Or will they conquer the world?

3. Will our home planet be left behind in ruins?

4. Are we on the verge of a space boom? And will the moon be the Boca Raton of the coming century?

5. Will Oprah Winfrey be the next President of the United States?

6. Will employment as we know it cease to exist?

7. Will the Technological Singularity become the next big political issue?

8. Will we soon be driving fully automated flying cars? Or are flying cars a pipe dream?

9. Finally, and perhaps most crucially of all... ****spoiler warning****

   ...will Jack Bauer escape his captors or will the next season of 24 take place in China?

Join a discussion or start one of your own.

Posted by Phil Bowermaster at 08:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)