Why We Probably Won't See a Star Trek Future
A nice summary of the reasons via Black Belt Bayesian, one of the highly recommended blogs on the Accelerating Future domain. I especially liked this point:
Ideas have changed too little. In Star Trek’s society, as far as I know, there is no taboo of ours that has become universally accepted. Yes, the mores of Star Trek’s society are such that we consider them progressive, but progressives as little as 100 years ago would be shocked if they could see what sort of things we consider normal. It’d be unlikely if there were nothing in future customs to shock us. There don’t seem to be any genuinely new ideas on how to have society work, either. I’m thinking along the lines of prediction markets, or even just blogs. Like with many other points, I don’t blame the writers for this; it is in predicting the future of ideas that futurism runs into its hardest limits. But a future with no weird ideas is still deeply unrealistic, and that’s worth keeping in mind.
Stephen and I were just chatting about how any compelling discussion of the future has to get into the weird stuff sooner or later. And that's not just social conventions, where I would agree that Star Trek dropped the ball. Once in a while, you would see a truly mind-blowing concept -- an abandoned Dyson Sphere, an alien race that speaks only in literary metaphors, a species that grows its population by resurrecting the corpses of other abandoned life-forms -- but more often than not you would get a lot of tried and true (and generally quite entertaining) stuff about Klingons and diplomatic crises and, of course, a "form of energy never encountered before" which causes problems for 55 minutes, only to be rectified in the last 5 after a Level One Diagnostic inspires a truly ingenious solution, usually involving the Main Deflector Dish (and reversing the polarity of something.)
Another idea missing from Star Trek -- not, as the post points out, that the writers can be blamed for it -- is the idea of a technological singularity. The closest Trek ever came to that idea was the end the first Star Trek movie. And even in that setting, there was this attitude of "maybe for thee, but not for me." Relative to Speculist readers, the folks in Star Trek are relative luddites.
Remember when Q gave Riker all the powers of the Q continuum? Riker gave them back within the prescribed 60 minutes out of fear that he might "turn into something else." There was this concern that he was becoming arrogant -- he was doing things like addressing the captain by his first name!
I suspect most of us, given a similar offer, would handle it differently.
For example, how about keep the powers and don't act like a total schmuck? Think of all the good he could have done for humanity if he kept them only for a week. Or if that's too risky, think of all the unbelievably hot sex he could have had. (Just to put it in Riker-friendly terms.) In one episode, I remember Riker confessing to Picard that he didn't ever intend to die -- wow, those Q powers might have really helped with that one, buddy.

Don't be a schmuck, man
Actually, that would have been a fun device, if it had ever occurred to the writers. A couple of seasons later, have Riker get killed and then suddenly pop back to life -- whereupon he confesses that he did, indeed, keep a little Q Juice for himself when he supposedly renounced those powers. He just set it up so that he's immortal and unkillable. That would be an interesting quandary -- what do you do on a starship where you have several hundred normal, vulnerable crew members and one guy who cannot be killed, no matter what? I guess he would become a sort of one-man away team.
Of course, Data could also have been that indestructible crew member. Have him run a full backup before every away mission. If things go well, they go well. But if Data gets blown up, well we just replicate a new model and upload the backup. Uploading (even for the freaking android character), life extension, cryonics -- these ideas made scant appearances in Star Trek, and usually only for the purposes of poo-pooing them. Granted, these ideas are hard to package into entertainment products. The Matrix gives us a post-singularity world where conflicts between human and artificial intelligence are handled by elaborate martial arts fights and putting together (and unleashing!) massive arsenals of personal ordnance. A more "realistic" handling of some of the same issues can be found in a movie like Vanilla Sky -- but I'll take Star Trek or the Matrix over that, any time.
UPDATE: An alert reader reminds me that it was not an episode of TNG in which Riker declared his intention to live forever, but rather the end of the movie Star Trek: Generations. This reader writes:
Riker confessed to Picard that he intended to live forever at the end of Star Trek: Generations, not in a series episode. It went something like this:
Picard: After all, we're only mortal.
Riker (grinning): Speak for yourself, sir. I intend to live forever.(just paraphrasing; if you really want I can pull out the DVD and quote word-for-word!).
Don't trouble yourself, friend. I think we got the gist. So perhaps Riker only came to his desire for immortality long after turning down the Q powers. In which case I can only remind the sometimes-bearded commander that in this life, timing is -- if not everything -- pretty darned important.
Schmuck.
Comments
Another fun Transhumanist (or anti-transhumanist, as the case may be) factoid from Star Trek: On Deep Space Nine, Dr. Bashir was genetically engineered with greater mental and physical capabilities. However, genetic engineering is illegal in the Federation, he had to keep all this hidden.
Why is it illegal? I have no idea. I might presume to prevent the wealthy from overpowering the poor with super-kids, but given that there IS no wealth in the Federation, I don't see why they can't just genetically engineer everyone and have an entire race of advanced, super-intelligent humans.
I seem to remember that Q discusses the past of humanity in the very first episode and that, at some point, we were all badly-dressed, combat-drug addicts with guns attached to our arms. To prevent this fashion disaster from ever happening again, we were forced to give up all the COOL technology, until we eventually developed warp drive.
But anyway, there's quite a few unique representations of transhumanism in Star Trek, the show just tries to keep them one of a kind, rather than exploring the actual impact these technologies would have.
Posted by: Vadept
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July 28, 2007 12:27 AM
Star Trek has to appeal to the masses. In the first episode they had a male crew member wearing a dress (nothing fancy, but it was a real Star Trek uniform). That didn't fly and it gives you an idea of just what an uphill struggle any advanced concepts would have had.
Posted by: Karl Hallowell
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July 29, 2007 01:51 AM
Apparently they did this throughout the first season. The uniform was called the "skant".
Posted by: Karl Hallowell
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July 29, 2007 02:07 AM
Making the skant unisex (rather than a sexist space cheerleader outfit for the babes) was a retcon.
But it was good retcon.
Posted by: Stephen Gordon
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July 29, 2007 07:38 AM
Star Trek TOS was a mirror of everyday society in a slightly-beyond-near future. What's 300 years or 50? Nothing. The philosophy behind the stories was incredible. It did have an impact on me as youngster. It got me really involved in science and technology.
Next Gen series were commercial productions for the masses. Politicial correct, predictable A-Z scenarios, no real evolving characters, somehow toe curling Americo-Christian even (in an Euro-libetarian view). You won't find 'decent' things in newer series, apart from great acting and nice hours of entertainment. I am not critizing the great efforts that have been made, I am talking about truly innovative stuff.
For interesting things revert to the first series. Almost anything I can think of now came by years ago. Somehow. Coated in a 60's/70's dress maybe, but thoughtful and very inspiring. I still regard Star Trek TOS as one of the best series ever made. Besides some Doctor Who, Blakes Seven and Sapphire And Steel.
Watch 'Sapphire and Steel' if you don't know this early 80's series. It's singularity plus plus. As a kid -look at my pic- I could not watch it while we were living in a small 18th century house in the woods. I couldn't resist either. Even after some beaten up drunk guy died at our doorstep one night, for us to discover the next morning.
Ring a ring of rozes.
Posted by: Koreman
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July 29, 2007 03:06 PM
"...but progressives as little as 100 years ago would be shocked if they could see what sort of things we consider normal."
Like what?
Rich people are rich and getting richer? Poor people have indoor plumbing? Gay people expect civil rights?
I mean - what's so different is the way people see the world and our place in it- not the world or how human society functions.
Predictions are often wrong*- and so not following them is practical - even smart.
Humans are obsessed with themselves. fashion, gossip, celebrity watch- none of this appears to be going away.
And - for reasons I lack articulation to explain- humans also will seize upon even the appearance of foolishness or weakness to defeat their neighbor, sometimes for no other reason than they can. It's schadenfreude or "tall poppy" syndrome at it's meanest.
So whoinhell wants predict anything interesting and get creamed for it twice- once when predicting it and again when it doesn't happen?
And for entertainment- naked women, puppies, flawed human interaction (gossip) and shock have worked for millenia. All the StarTrek iterations knew this and stuck to it.
*The result, which is replicable across a wide range of experts and predictions, is that the actual value of the variable falls outside of the 98% confidence interval 30% of the time.
I repeat: 30%. For those of you who are skeptical and who are wondering where I'm getting this from, I was also skeptical when I first ran across this result, but it was cited as being from a very famous paper called "Judgment under uncertainty" by Tversky and Kahneman - Kahneman being the guy who just won the Nobel Prize in economics - and I checked the paper, and yeah, it's there.
-Eliezer Yudkowsky, Feb 2003
Posted by: MDarling
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August 3, 2007 10:29 AM
@vadept
Genetic enhancement of humans was made illegal in the Federation to prevent another Kahn Noonian Singh and another Eugenics war.
Posted by: jerome | November 11, 2009 05:11 PM