The Kindle Bet
Toward the end of Sunday night's FastForward Radio show (here at the 63:30 mark) I mentioned that the Kindle 2 is being launched this week.
Before the conversation was over Phil and I made a bet. I'm betting $1.00 that in ten years the print market will be diminished because most people will be reading on electronic readers like the Kindle. Phil disagreed and is betting that although most reading will occur on these devices in 10 years, the print market will be bigger than ever.
I've put a little more skin in the game by ordering a Kindle 2. It'll arrive today; review forthcoming.
UPDATE:
The New York Times is leaning toward Phil:
So, for the thousandth time: is this the end of the printed book?Don't be silly.
The Kindle has the usual list of e-book perks: dictionary, text search, bookmarks, clippings, MP3 music playback and six type sizes (baby boomers, arise). No trees die to furnish paper for Kindle books, either.
But as traditionalists always point out, an e-book reader is a delicate piece of electronics. It can be lost, dropped or fried in the tub. You'd have to buy an awful lot of $10 best sellers to recoup the purchase price. If Amazon goes under or abandons the Kindle, you lose your entire library. And you can't pass on or sell an e-book after you've read it.
Another group of naysayers claims that the Kindle has missed its window. E-book programs are thriving on the far more portable (and far more popular) iPhones and iPod Touches. Surely smartphones, which already serve as cameras, calculators and Web browsers, will become the dominant e-book readers as well.
The point everyone is missing is that in Technoland, nothing ever replaces anything. E-book readers won't replace books. The iPhone won't replace e-book readers. Everything just splinters. They will all thrive, serving their respective audiences.
Of course I wasn't betting that these devices will end the printed book. I'm betting that in 10 years the print market will be diminished because of these devices.
But let me take on one naysayer argument - "these devices are fragile and expensive."
Yes, for now. Here's a link to one of the first electronic calculators. It cost $2,195 - in early 1960's dollars. Now they are disposable. I saw a happy meal toy with a working calculator a couple of years ago. It'll be the same with eBook readers. The price will drop until its not much of a barrier for anyone who cares to have one.
Also, there's plenty that could be done to make these devices less fragile. How long until we see a bright yellow Kindle Sport?
Comments
When the kindle, or a similar device, hits a price point of about a hundred bucks, that's when the shift will happen.
Printing will shrink. Most news papers are losing money now as it is and their largest cost is printing. Most books lose money. If we switch to ebooks and enews on a device like the kindle that will no longer be the case.
Printing will die, publishing will not. Your friend loses on a technicality.
Posted by: MissedCall | February 25, 2009 09:33 AM
The cost and fragility of the hardware has never been the issue for me. The two things I quoted are the real deal killers. My friends and I trade books all the time, which can't be done with any current ebook as far as I know.
Not that I expect Amazon to go under, but someone else may come out with a much better reader tomorrow and I want to be able to switch, even if it's from a rival firm, and bring my existing e-library with me.
In this case, two strikes and you're out.
Posted by: Bleyddyn | February 25, 2009 10:51 AM
As someone who works in an ink company, you are right and Phil is wrong. Inks for news papers and magazines are on a downward spiral. The biggest factor is the movement of advertising dollars away from the print medium. The second biggest factor is young people buy far fewer newspapers and magazines.
Posted by: jim moore | March 1, 2009 01:06 PM
As an avid reader most of my life I pooh-poohed the idea that an e-reader would ever become part of my library. I love the tactile feel of a book, and the smell of the paper.
Our previous house had a large library area that held books collected over many years. After moving into our new home, books became piled everywhere, stacked upon all surfaces, etc. Just too much clutter.
I came across an article on the Kindle while waiting for an appointment. It intrigued me enough to do some research. I liked the idea of storing many books on a light portable device. I liked getting them within one minute of purchase. No more "I have nothing interesting to read". So, I took the plunge. Amazon's great customer service and return policy made me feel safe in purchasing through them.
It has been three weeks since my Kindle arrived. I love it!! It is light, easy to use right out of the box. Text is clear and easy to read without any eyestrain. Can hold the unit in one hand and easily change pages with the touch of a finger. (Other hand free to sip coffee, tea, etc. for a relaxing indulgent read.) It goes easily into my purse without bulk. Love the selection of books available. Even some that are now out of print can be obtained form Kindle books.
The price? Well, yes, that was a consideration. But I guess one can justify anything. Actually, with all of the reading I do, and all the book purchases I make, including from used book stores, I feel that I will actually pay for the device within three months.
Not having the ability to share books was something I thought about. But my tastes in reading material is different from most people I would feel comfortable in loaning a paper book to.
Bottom line is, I have no regrets in buying the Kindle. Would do it again. As a matter of fact, I showed it to my sister, and she bought one a week and a half ago and is as happy with hers as I am with mine.
Posted by: J. White | December 13, 2009 09:42 PM