A Hundred Billion Trillion
From the department of Cool your jets, there, Sparky:
Life on Earth used to be thought of as a freak accident that only happened once.
But scientists are now coming to the conclusion that the universe is teeming with living organisms.
The change in thinking has come about because of the new belief there are an abundant number of habitable planets like Earth.
Alan Boss, of the Carnegie Institution in Washington DC, said there could be as many Earths as there are stars in the universe - one hundred billion trillion.
Um, no.
If he had said "planets," okay. Maybe. But an Earth for every star? Nonsense. Let me put it this way -- what makes an Earth an Earth? Size? Color? Moon?
Is Mars an Earth? Is Venus?
What about location? This planet is in the Mother of All Sweet Spots. How many Earths have the right combination of water, nitrogen, oxygen, and so forth, and sit in that tiny orbital band that lets water be liquid a lot of the time -- not always ice or steam?
No that many, I'm thinking -- something less than a hundred billion trillion bazillion or whatever.
So then why in the world would we call any planet that doesn't meet those basic criteria an "Earth?" I don't think we should.
Boss has some other thoughts:
Whether the life we find is intelligent is, however, less than inevitable.
"Intelligent life seems to be fleeting," he said. "In terms of the universe it only exists for a fraction of time."
He said it would be a massive coincidence for us to find intelligent life that exists at the same time as us. It is more likely to be bacteria or microbes.
"It is unlikely that 'we' will exist for a further 100,000 years," he said.
Scare quotes around 'we' notwithstanding, I would lay even money -- with anyone who cares to make such a bet --that 100,000 years from now there will be somebody living on this planet. Double or nothing these beings will still believe that they are us.
Any takers?
Comments
I'd take that bet- but only after we defined some terms.
"somebody"
"this planet"
"us"
"100,000 years"
I've been thinking about M Anissmimov's comment about 2200 never coming- and I think your's could be a losing bet.
Posted by: MDarling | February 18, 2009 12:04 PM
somebody = somebody
this planet = you know...this planet. On the surface, underground, in the water, in the atmosphere, in orbit around -- any of which might include living within computer systems placed in any of those locations.
us = human beings or the descendants of human beings, but carrying on a common history
100,000 years. That's a good one. If we go by regular calendar years, then 100,000 years from now, it's possible that the only somebodies you could find would be MOSHes. But if the year 2200 never comes, we can still talk about the subjective passage of time. In which case, 100,000 subjective years from now we (Michael and Phil) might still be living here on this planet, insisting that we are still us.
Posted by: Phil Bowermaster | February 18, 2009 10:11 PM