The Speculist: The End

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The End

I was looking for an embeddable version of the Canadian video tracking a meteor reentering the atmospheree from a couple of weeks ago, thinking it would make a cool Friday video -- to no avail; looks like you have to go here to see it in action -- when I came upon the video embedded below.

For those who haven't heard, the end of the world is coming. December 21, 2012 is the final date on the Mayan calendar, and is thought by many to be the date of a coming apocalypse. Here Art Bell interviews an expert on the subject, with some nifty accompanying graphics.

So it turns out that 21 December 2012 is not necessarily the day the catastrophe happens -- it is merely the epicenter of a window during which the cataclysm may take place. That's a 40 year window, which of course we are well within at this point, so I guess we're lucky the proverbial cosmic poop hasn't already hit the proverbial cosmic fan.

Why is the world going to end? Well, our civilization is ripe for destruction. it seems we've lost the "mandate of heaven" and become almost "entirely materialistic."

Blah blah blah.

This sounds eerily similar to the End Times stuff that was popular amongst conservative evangelicals back in the 70's and 80's. Actually, the topic is still popular today, although now evangelicals consume it more in the form of fiction rather than non-fiction, which somehow tells me that the sense of urgency is not what it was. Back in the day, people were trying to identify the Antichrist and put dates around when certain things would happen. I don't think there's as much of that now, but I could be wrong.

Anyhow, the certainty that the world will end soon seems to give a perverse sense of comfort to some people. Granted, an evangelical who is into this stuff will tell you that he or she ins't keen on death and destruction, merely looking forward the second coming of Christ. And believers in the Mayan doomsday will tell you that they don't want the world to end, but that they're looking forward to the Age of Aquarius, the huge spiritual awakening that will come just after the catastrophe -- or possibly just before, preventing it from happening.

And maybe these folks aren't so far off. Maybe this really is the end -- no, not the end of humanity, nor the end of civilization, nor even the end of "materialism." (Sorry.) But maybe something is winding down, here, although not necessarily in keeping with any ancient Biblical or Mayan prophecies. Or it could be happening perfectly in line with those prophecies, my point being that one need not subscribe to them in order to see that something is, indeed, happening.

Perhaps we're looking at the end, not of the beginning, but of the briefest of prologues, the preface, the inside cover page. Maybe what's coming to an end is the big wind up, and we're experiencing the final milliseconds before throwing the first pitch of the first game of what promises to be a very long season, indeed.

That's the perspective from which I look at the future. Everything that has happened up to this moment, though it seems impossibly long and difficult (and was both) -- is a blink, a twitch, a clearing of the throat, compared to what is to come. I don't think we came all this way just to hit the reset button, and if the universe or God or Quetzalcoatl is evaluating us and responding to us in accordance with our performance, it's hard to jibe the success that humanity has experienced and is experiencing with any massive divine disapproval.

Hubris, some will say. And maybe they're right, and maybe the divine comeuppance is up and coming.

But maybe not. While in Las Vegas a while back, I happened to be standing at a roulette table with some business associates who were playing minimum stakes, and not doing terribly well. The last four or five spins had come up black. A man walked up to the table, looked at the board showing the progress of the last few turns, and plunked a $1000 chip down on red. I know this kind of stuff goes on all the time, but it was the first time I had ever seen anything like it. Quickly, several of the players threw an additional bet onto red, cheering this daring gambler.

The croupier called, "No more bets!" and we all held our breath a little as the stakes of the game had gone up quite a bit. The ball whirled around the spinning wheel, slowing as it bounced along until it came click-clicking to a stop at number 17, black.

The $1000-man was gone from the table before anyone could even gauge a reaction, but I will venture to guess that he wasn't terribly happy. As he was raking in the chips, the croupier made an interesting comment.

"Guy thought he had a sure thing," he said. "But the truth is, it makes as much sense to bet with the trend as it does to bet against it."

At the Speculist, we're betting with the trend. There is an undeniable trend in human history towards greater human capability, greater human freedom, and greater potential for human happiness. Arguably, this is a trend not just in human history, but in the history of the universe. The world may end, but that's not where we're putting our chips.

At the beginning of each edition of FastForward Radio, I reiterate my conviction that something is going to happen -- something wonderful. If anyone is curious as to what that "something" might be, I have attempted to lay out what it might be reasonable to expect. But just as Art Bell's guest can only provide a 40-year window for doomsday, I can only provide suggestions and hints as to what the future might hold: not because I'm unconvinced that the future will be good, but rather because I'm fairly certain that I lack the capacity, in a meaningful way, to articulate just how good it's going to be.

Comments

The irony amuses me that transhumanists and technophiles mock religion and antiquity's eschatological ideas, while heralding the wonders of the coming Singularity. It doesn't take much refactoring to make them compatible. The Singularity promises to redefine life as we know it to life as we can't even imagine it. If we are unable to imagine it from only 2-50 years prior, give the Maya a break; they have predicted an event within a 40 year window from thousands of years prior. That's either extreme coincidence, or they were (really) early Speculists.

I like this description.
I haven't bothered to find peer review or analysis because why?


http://www.viewzone.com/endtime.html


I'm not about mocking people's beliefs, but I do find the idea that humanity is due for a good smiting tiresome.

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