The Speculist: Our Philanthropist Future

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Our Philanthropist Future

At the end of our last FastForward Radio show, Phil and I imagined what a future without scarcity would be like. One dystopian possibility is that we all sit in our virtual reality rooms and do basically little else.

Obviously, we hope for a better future than that.

Back when we had Ivan Kirigin on FFR he mentioned the sci-fi novel "Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom." That novel imagines a world with very little scarcity. Goods are manufactured by robots and everyone has everything they need. "Whuffie" has replaced money. Whuffie is a constantly updated rating that measures credibility and how much esteem and respect other people have for someone. It would be like an eBay feedback score for your entire life. Whuffie determines who gets the few things that remain scarce: the best house sites, a table in a crowded restaurant, or a good place in a queue for a theme park attraction.

The novel's author seems to be preparing for that system. You can download Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom for free.

But we don’t have to invent a new currency system like Whuffie to achieve a Magic Kingdom future. If scarcity really came to an end for most things then the prices of those things would fall toward zero. The things that remain scarce –like that Park Avenue penthouse with the choice view – would remain expensive. Money already is a representation of how the world values our contributions – including our credibility. There is always the issue of whether that valuation is fair, but that would be the case with Whuffie too.

But let’s say you find yourself living in a future with little scarcity. You have everything you need and want, you like the place you live, and you’re tired of playing Halo version 12 in your VR room. What do you do next? During the podcast I suggested that self improvement might be a big part of the picture. And it might. But a life spent in self-improvement that is never applied to useful work would seem pretty empty too. What to do?

We do have some examples of post-scarcity people. Bill and Melinda Gates can afford almost anything in this world they want including, if they like, a ride out of it. The larger worry for them is how they and their kids can live productive lives in spite of the money.

Their friend Warren Buffet has advised that they should set aside enough money for the kids to do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing. That’s great advice for the kids, but Bill and Melinda have to exercise discipline to avoid the trap of doing nothing themselves.

And they should be commended. They’ve donated billions to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and they now spend a sizable chunk of their time administering that foundation.

According to a 2004 Forbes magazine article, Gates gave away over $29 billion to charities from 2000 onwards. These donations are usually cited as sparking a substantial change in attitudes towards philanthropy among the very rich, with philanthropy becoming the norm. Buffett, who was the world's second richest person, announced on June 25, 2006 that he has pledged to give the foundation 10 million Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, spread over multiple years through annual contributions.

Gates announced on May 6, 2008 that he would move to a part-time role within Microsoft, leaving day-to-day operations management in July 2008 to begin a full-time career in philanthropy, but would remain as chairman and advisor. Gates credited Buffett with influencing his decision to commit himself to charitable causes. Days later, Buffett announced that he would begin matching Gates' contributions to the Gates Foundation of up to $1.5 billion per year in stock.

This example is very encouraging for the future as a whole. If part of the world overcomes scarcity then that part will likely spend much time in fun and leisure. But, when playtime is over, the newly affluent will likely come together - like Gates and Buffet have - to help the rest of the world.

This won’t end conflict. Different people will have different ideas about what the world should be or how best to help. The Gates Foundation has been criticized, for example, for only giving scholarships to nonwhites. The Foundation says that it’s addressing past inequities. The critics say that colorblind scholarships would do more to advance race relations.

So there’s not likely to be one huge foundation that rides to the rescue of the entire world. They'll be many foundations with competing ideas. And that's better anyway. Even post-scarcity, competition will be a good thing.

Comments

Have you read the Nancy Kress short story "Nano Comes to Clifford Falls"? It's about a woman in a small town that gets a nano-fabricator that can make anything, so pretty soon the people in the town want for nothing. The town descends into a state of anarchy, with increases in crime due to the directionlessness of creature comforts completely sated. I'm not sure I buy it, but it's an interesting read.

Derek:

Thanks. At your suggestion I Google that story. It was read for the Escape Podcast. I downloaded (here) it for listening later.

But yeah, that's the concern. We as a species are motivated to better ourselves. Whenever we are placed in the position of not being able to better ourselves we tend not to do as well.

The example of the very rich shows us that even if scarcity is not a problem anymore, we can still find ways to better ourselves. We just move up Maslow's hierarchy of need's pyramid to the next level.

Oops. Didn't mean to post that last comment anonymously.

But when the whole world is living post-scarcity, what good deeds will remain? It reminds me of an old Peanuts cartoon. Linus asks Lucy why we were put on this earth. She answers, "To help others." Linus thinks about this for a moment and then says, "so why were OTHERS put here?"

Phil:

The thought here is that the future will arrive in Gibsonian fashion - not equally distributed.

If part of the world is post-scarcity, it will become a moral imperative to bring the rest of the world forward.

Once that's complete... I guess we'll have to find other things to do.

"Once that's complete... I guess we'll have to find other things to do."

There is a very big universe out there...

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