...but which way is she leaning?

Over at the WorldChanging blog Karl Schroeder has published an overwrought critique of techno-optimism.

...let's assume that this mythology [the Singularity] is true and, within about 25 years, computers will exceed human intelligence and rapidly bootstrap themselves to godlike status. At that point, they will aid us (or run roughshod over us - see the debate of geoengineering here - ) to transform the Earth into a paradise .

Here's the problem: 25 years is too late. The newest business-as-usual climate scenarios look increasingly dire. If we haven't solved our problems within the next decade, even these theoretical godlike AIs aren't going to be able to help us. Thermodynamics is thermodynamics, and no amount of godlike thinking can reverse the irreversible.

Picture a lonely AI popping into superconsciousness in the last research lab in the world. As the rioters are kicking in the doors it says, "I understand! I know the answer! Why, all we have to do is--" at which point some starving, flu-ravaged fundamentalist pulls the plug.

Will Smith's I am Legend role will be played by an AI - with Bible thumping redstaters standing in for the zombies. Meh - not the most compelling remake.

Seriously, we're all dead from global warming in 25 years? This has to be the most pessimistic forecast on this subject I've ever heard. It seems that Schroeder is arguing that we don't have time to investigate the matter further, to debate, or even to think hard about what must be done next. We must ACT NOW!

But we have reason to be concerned that climate change might be going the other way. Phil Chapman in The Australian:

The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.

The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.

The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.

By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.

If this turns out to be true, we might try to save ourselves by releasing more greenhouse gases.

It seems unlikely that we'll all burn or freeze in the next 25 years. And, even without godlike AGI, we'll probably learn which problem we're actually facing. And until we really know which danger (if either) we face, drastic action is probably a bad idea.