The Speculist: Less Gas is Always Greener

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Less Gas is Always Greener

Without looking, what would you guess is the subject of the Wired article "'Misinformed Craze' For Hybrids Delays Greener Technology?"


Guess 1:

I was sure initially that the author was suggesting that standard hybrids are delaying plug-in hybrids.

Thanks to the nickel batteries in standard hybrids, there's a good argument that these "green" cars are worse for the environment than my Ford Explorer. This is tragic because, well, it exposes my witty title as a lie.

Plug-in hybrids will be doubly better for the environment. We will be able to drive emission-free for most commuting and the batteries necessary to power a plug-in hybrid are environmentally friendly too.

But it doesn't look like plug-ins are being held back by the standard hybrids. Most major car companies, plus a few upstarts, are getting into the plug-in business as fast as they can. In ten years we'll probably look back at standard hybrids as a brief, necessary bridge to plug-ins.

Prediction: the word "standard" won't describe non-pluggable hybrids for much longer.

But that's not what the Wired article is about.


Guess 2:

Perhaps the author is arguing that somehow hybrids as a whole - standards and plug-ins - are holding back the development of full EV's.

Now this would be an interesting article too. But hybrids aren't holding EV's back any more than standard hybrids are holding back plug-ins.

EV's are being held back by a chicken/egg problem. Few people will buy EV's until they are comparable to gas guzzlers in range, speed, and the ability to fuel up quickly at convenient stations. No EV's, no infrastructure. No infrastructure, no EV's.

Plug-ins will, I think, serve as a proving ground for the EV’s that follow. They could also provide the infrastructure for EV's. Plug-in owners will buy gas for long trips until enterprising station owners offer quick charge service that's cheaper than gas. Once that service is widespread, we'd have a network of stations that full EV's could use. Perhaps Congress should mandate standardized quick charge jacks in plug-ins to encourage this.

But no, that's not what the Wired article is about either.


The Big Reveal:

The article states that hybrids are holding back other technologies like...hydrogen. This according to two French researchers who also concede that hydrogen won't be commercially viable until 2025 at the earliest.

If we ever do get hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (a rather big if) they will also be electric vehicles. A hydrogen fuel cell would power a car with electricity. Wouldn't it be beneficial to have already perfected electric vehicles? Right now the best path to electric vehicles is through hybrids.

There's no need to wait to 2025 to do something. We will experiment with many possibilities between now and then.

Comments

Looks like the textbook example of making the perfect the enemy of the good.

My first thought was fusion.
Then Paris Hilton, mostly naked.

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