The Ivory Billed Woodpecker Mystery
In April of 2005 we got word that the Ivory Billed woodpecker had somehow miraculously survived in the Cache River/White River region of Arkansas. At that time I talked about something I called "the UFO effect."
But I think the UFO factor is a big part of how this bird stayed hidden. Respected scientists had stopped looking for the bird. If some doctoral candidate had submitted a thesis on the possibility of this bird surviving, he'd have been labeled a crank. Those who claimed to have seen the bird (there were many, surely some of these sightings will now prove to be authentic) simply weren't believed.There is a lesson here. Scientists shouldn't, can't, and won't go chasing down every UFO or Loch Ness monster sighting. Scientists gravitate to those lines of inquiry most likely to prove fruitful and tend to ignore other areas. This makes sense. It's a form of habitat selection for bright minds.
But scientists shouldn't get cocky. The road not taken was probably a dead-end - but who's to say?
Since that time another group has come forward with some evidence that the bird has survived in swampy forests along Florida's Choctawatchee River.
Although members of our search group are convinced that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers persist in the swamp forests along the Choctawhatchee River, we readily concede that the evidence we have amassed to date falls short of definitive.
And here in Louisiana birders continue searching around the Pearl River.
Unfortunately, in the two years since the original announcement in the Journal Science, we still don't have further proof that this bird has survived in Arkansas. The search continues:
But not everyone is convinced that the original evidence that led to the 2005 announcement was really definitive.
If science eventually decides that the bird most likely did not survive in Arkansas, a very different lesson from the "UFO effect" might be drawn from all this.
Everybody, including critics of the evidence like Martin Collinson, want this bird to be alive. Scientists are people first, and people tend to find evidence for things they want to believe.
Comments
Scientists are people first, and people tend to find evidence for things they want to believe.
Moreover, the people who fund scientific research aren't even necessarily scientists, and they tend to give money to support accepted sets of assumptions. When Thomas Kuhn wrote The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, he was careful to distinguish between the single paradigm under which a field of science operates and the many options of belief open to practitioners of the humanities. Here's a famous passage, including a quote from Max Planck which is the basis for the old adage that science advances one funeral at a time:
Copernicanism made few converts for almost a century after Copernicus' death. Newton's work was not generally accepted, particularly on the Continent, for more than half a century after the Principia appeared. The difficulties of conversion have often been noted by the scientists themselves. Darwin, in a particularly perceptive passage at the end of his Origin Of Species, wrote: "Although I am fully convinced of the truth of the views given in this volume .. I, by no means expect to convince experienced naturalists whose minds are stocked with a multitude of facts all viewed, during a long course of years, from a point of view directly opposite to mine. ..But I look with confidence to the future - to young and rising naturalists, who will be able to view both sides of the question with impartiality." And Max Planck, surveying his own career in his Scientific Autobiography, sadly remarked that "a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.
While this goes well beyond the discussion of the Ivory Billed Woodpecker -- scientists don't need a whole separate paradigm in order to come to different conclusions about that, only different weighings of the evidence involved -- you have to wonder whether in this media- , politics-, and money-fueled age of scientific research whether paradigms are quite as solid as they used to be. There's almost something reassuring about a system where a whole generation of scientists have to die off before a new model can get a foothold.
Posted by: Phil Bowermaster
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August 4, 2007 08:06 AM
Phil:
For a time I think there was too much resistance to the idea that the Ivory Billed Woodpecker could survive. Sure it is a big showy bird, but it's required habitat would naturally draw it to remote places.
On the other hand, once someone published - in the journal Science! - that it had survived, for many the debate was basically over before it began.
Either way it's counter-productive when ideology drives science.
Posted by: Stephen Gordon
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August 5, 2007 06:21 AM
Planck seems like another in a long and prodcutive line of humourless German scientists. I hope he's wrong- and getting wronger - about the necessity of a generational death being required.
Posted by: MDarling
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August 10, 2007 02:50 PM