Using hefty doses of humor, Avila quickly cut through two different kinds of stereotypes about Latinos – both the ugly traditional stereotypes and the well-intentioned PC ones – to give a surprisingly frank assessment of the Latino community in America and where it’s heading. He seemed to enjoy playing against expectations, reminding the audience more than once that stereotypes “aren’t always wrong.”

I will have to wait until I get a copy of his presentation materials in order to cite his sources, but here are some statistics he quoted that I found quite interesting:

Growth of the Latino community from 1970-2000 was primarily through immigration

Growth the Latino community from 2000-2020 will be primarily second-generation

I don’t think the expectation here is that immigration (including illegal immigration) will stop, but rather that the birthrate of will overtake the immigration rate. Here are some more potentially unexpected findings:

Presumably the missing category here is “mixed dominance,” which apparently accounts for 47% of the second-generation Latino households. But if the trend continues into the third generation, the majority of Latino households will be English-dominant by then, with the rest being mixed. (Spanish-dominant households would be reduced to a very small majority.)

Again, I’m not sure where Avila got his information or whether it is logical to assume that the trend will continue, but if the numbers are good and the trend does continue, all these worries about a separate Spanish-speaking nation rising up within the US start to seem a tad overwrought.

Here’s another one. A survey of the Latino community overall asked how important it is for Latinos to blend in with American society.

64% said Very Important
24% said Important
4% said Not Important

We appear once again to be missing an important category – probably the 8% who said “I don’t know.” But at worst, this gives us 12% of the community who are indifferent to the idea of assimilation. That’s not wonderful, but it doesn’t feel like a huge threat, either.

At one point, before describing a commercial that he thought was effective in reaching the Latino community, Avila asked, “How many here watch Spanish-language TV?”

A few hands came up.

“I don’t,” he said, chuckling.

One of the biggest surprises came when Avila explained how he thought libraries should be referred to in order to draw in the Latino community. Someone in the audience suggested that we should use the word “bibliotheca,” the Spanish word for “library.” But Avila pointed out that most Spanish-speaking immigrants would have little or no real experience with a bibliotheca.

So he suggested that they be referred to as “libraries.”

I think the most surprising revelation, however, was on the subject of bilingual education. I will not attempt to repeat here what Salvadore said on that subject. I have some video of him expressing his views on the subject, which I will be posting in a day or two.

Early in the Twenty-First Century, Knowledge Will Underlie Everything of Value

Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.

I won’t attempt to encapsulate Ray’s talk. I don’t have the slides or the time. Two things that particularly captured the imagination of this group:

1. A demonstration of the latest generation of his text reader for the blind. Many librarians have been working with Kurzweil machines for years. But I don’t think anyone was expecting this. He points the small device at a page of text, clicks a button, and a (very) few seconds later a (very) natural sounding voice begins reading the page. The applause began after about the second paragraph, when it became clear that the reader was going to be able to recite the entire page after just that brief click and pause.

2. His statement that “we won’t just have designer babies; we’ll have designer Baby Boomers.” A lot of people liked that.

Ray didn’t have time to stay for a video interview, but we did chat for a moment about the upcoming film version of The Singularity is Near. I’m not sure whether I’m allowed to reveal any what he told me about it, but I will say this: look for an updated interview with our dear friend Ramona in the near future. Ray’s idea.

Maybe Ramona will be able to tell you what I can’t.

20/20 Foresight: How to Look Into the Future

Bob Treadway, Treadway and Associates

Bob Treadway is a futurist who consults with such clients as American Express, Gilette, and Berkshire Hathaway. He described his talk in pythonesque terms as “something completely different” after Kurzweil’s visionary pronouncements. And, indeed, it was.

Treadway’s common-sense approach to the future involves identifying a Cone of Relative Certainty -- something that looks a lot like my old flashlight model of possibility space. He describes how we need to look at trends, driving forces, harbingers, and triggers to begin to get a lucid picture not of what definitely will happen, but rather the parameters of what may happen.

Turning once again to the fate of the baby boom generation, he outlined a couple of possible scenarios. In one, boomers are going into retirement age less healthy than their parents did, and lacking the financial resources to make a go of their retirement years. So they keep on working. In the other, boomers are planning their second and third careers, starting graduate degrees in their 50’s and 60’s (he mentioned how his sister has just received he PhD in Psychology at age 59), and planning to spend the remainder of their lives in creative and helpful pursuits.

All told, Treadway outlined a very practical and useful methodology for helping individuals and groups make sense of what’s coming next.

Library Space: Is It the Last Frontier in the Digital Age?

Jeffrey Sherer, Meyer, Sherer, and Rockcastle, Ltd.

Sherer is an architect who specializes in building libraries. His presentation was extremely practical, dealing with such topics as:

1. Heating and Cooling
2. Noise
3. Lighting
4. Wiring
5. Unexpected Consequences

He had a slew of excellent slides with pictures backing up his point – images of poorly lighted, poorly wired, and awkwardly designed libraries abounded, as did their opposites.

One interesting tidbit – the designers of the first Barnes and Noble stores claimed to take their inspiration from libraries. Now libraries are being built to be more like Barnes and Noble!

World Café

The day wrapped up with the promised World Café, discussing the first two of my Seven Questions About the Future over cocktails and hors d’ oeuvres. I got to facilitate two of the discussion groups – what a treat, to be discussing these issues in person! People had some wonderful perspectives on how they believe the world is changing and what they most look forward to. The big changes included television and ubiquitous connectivity. The general-purpose replication machine seems to be high on everyone’s wish list. VR was another popular choice. There was also some good discussion about risks and downsides, although (in the spirit of this particular exercise) I tired to steer things back to the positive stuff.

I managed to capture a few responses to the questions on video and hope to be sharing them with you all very soon.

All in all, a terrific day. More tomorrow.