The Speculist

If you think about the space program - getting to the moon - the lunar space program was literally achieved using slide rules. It's a technical achievement which shouldn't have happened. It is incredible that they were able to do it... They did it 50-60 years ahead of when they should have been able to do it... The orbital tracking system that was up on the wall... it was updated with motors and gears - someone was back there checking to make sure it was in the right spot. That's gearpunk. That isn't a space program in a modern sense. That's gears and slide rules and people doing the math... It was a political race, so it's not that surprising that we had a lull after [achieving the Moon]. The goal and function of the program had been achieved. The political point was made."

Sci-Fi author Tobias Buckell (March 20, 2006 Fast Forward Radio interview)

The science fiction subgenres of steampunk and gearpunk are set in alternate histories in which modern technological paradigms happen earlier, but are accomplished by way of the science available in that time period.

In "real life" inspiration often leads what should be possible. The transatlantic telegraph cable was laid in 1866. The U.S. Civil War had just finished and it would be another three years before the first U.S. transcontinental railroad would be completed, but from that year forward there has always been instantaneous communication between America and Europe. That was 50 years before the more obvious solution to transatlantic communication – radio - was able to broadcast across the ocean.

Other times it seems that we miss opportunities. Charles Babbage came close to delivering a Turing-complete computer in the mid-19th century – almost a century ahead of the 1943 arrival of the first working Turing-complete computer, ENIAC. It's little wonder that steampunk is commonly set in an alternate history where Babbage was successful. Imagine where we'd be today if computer development were 100 years further along.

It seems likely that most breakthroughs arrive "right on time." The Wright brother's flight is a good example. Of course their achievement was remarkable. Internal combustion engines might have been developing nicely at the turn of the century, but there still wasn't an engine with a sufficient power to weight ratio when they got started. So the Wright brothers took the best engines they could find and rebuilt and tinkered with them until they could coax just enough power out of the engine to make that first flight possible.

Meanwhile, there were other inventors working to be the first in the air. It's even possible that there were other heavier-than-air flights before the Wright's. With all this activity flying was destined to happen by 1903 – give or take a few years.

Phil once suggested that expectation has a lot to do with our advancement. If there is an expectation that something worthwhile is possible, we tend to work hard to make it happen. I agree. And if we're moving slow, the problem could be a failure of imagination.

The idea that history has momentum but inspired individuals can make a difference also came up in our recent conversation with Dr. Aubrey de Grey. De Grey agreed that if life extension is possible it would come about eventually, even if he or any other single individual pursuing the goal stopped working. But, he quickly added, if his work helped advance the life extension timetable by even a little, then millions of lives that would otherwise be lost would be saved. That, he said, "strikes me as a worthy goal." Indeed it is.

By the way, I think Tobias is exactly right about the 1969 Moon landing. It was accomplished about 50-60 years ahead of time. That would put us returning to the Moon, to stay, sometime between 2020 and 2030. That sounds about right.