Second Blogiversary (Belated)
The Speculist crew looks back on some of our favorite moments from the first two years of what might be, what might not be, what might have been...whatever.
Happy Birthday to us!
In keeping with our ideas about accelerating change, the past two years have really flown by. Phil was inspired to start the Speculist after attending the Foresight Insititute's Associates gathering in May of 2003, where he got to meet Eric Drexler, Christine Peterson, Aubrey de Grey, Peter Schwartz, Alex Lightman, and an obscure law professor from Tennessee who dabbles in writing about politics and (from time to time) technology. The blog officially launched On August 4, 2003 -- although there were a few "unofficial" entries before then.
From the start, Phil hoped that the Speculist would evolve into a group blog. Along the way, the posse of contributors has grown to include Stephen Gordon, Mike "El Jefe" Sargent, Kathy Hanson, and Engineer Poet, with indirect contributions from Blacknail, Vic, Da Goddess, and Rob Hinkley, along with thought-provoking commentary from everyone named above, as well as (to name just a few) Karl Hallowell, triticale, Nathan Lanier, zombyboy, Reason, Virginia Warren, Brian, Andrew, and a dozen or so other regulars.
During these two years The Speculist has remained hard to pigeonhole. You won't find the same tired political cat fights here that get plenty of airtime elsewhere in the blogosphere. While our political views sometimes slip through, the subjects we choose to cover are hard to classify politically - left or right.
Is life extension something that Democrats want more than Republicans? It might seem like a marginally lefty cause now, but who would turn down a safe, proven alternative to creeping incapacitation and death? It's our humble opinion that only an idiot would, putting the Speculist squarely in the post-left/right-dichotomy position known as anti-idiotarianism.
The accelerating development of computers is the engine for virtually all the change we watch so closely. The exponential pace of computer advancement affects all technological development: genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, brain/body enhancement, personal fabrication, and nanotechnology.
When we consider how developments in these fields will affect society, we are hopeful. We have been called, accurately, "techno-optimists." We have every reason to believe that life is and will continue to get better and better for more and more people. Knowing this, how can we be anything but optimistic?
Particularly after a disaster like Katrina or the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the mainstream media treat the cynics as prophets. But Human history is not a story of failure. It is a story of success, and of overcoming setbacks. You wouldn't know it from the news.
We understand why the media spends so much time covering disasters and war. Lives are lost or changed forever, people are in need, and individual plans have to be altered. And the media does a service when real failure is reported.
But that service is only half the story. The inability of the US government to predict, plan for, and prevent the 9/11 has been attributed by the investigating commission as a "failure of imagination." To some extent, the bungling of Katrina may reflect something even more dangerous -- the failure to act on what we have imagined correctly.
Neither the mainstream media, nor government, nor the business community currently make a sufficient effort to re-imagine the world, to actively look for the possible threats and opportunities which lie outside the bounds of what we have seen or experienced before, and to engage those possibilities in a serious way.
And the bigger story of our technological destiny is lost in the bad-news-only 24/7 news cycle. The MSM covers setbacks and problems, but they rarely think about where our civilization is actually going, what it is that we are accomplishing, and what it will mean for the people who "live to see it."
"Live to See It" has become The Speculist motto. It encompasses what The Speculist is all about. The technological progress that would have taken lifetimes in the recent past happens in a decade today. We have become, in essence, time travelers moving through entire technological eras within short spans on the calendar. If all we do is manage to live a "normal" lifespan, then we will live to see incredible undreamed of advances by the ends of our lives.
Here, then, is a preview of some of those advances, as well as a look back at a few of our favorite entires from the first two years.
Phil's Top Picks
A response to commentary from a reader (my sister, actually) became one of the most linked to and commented on things we have ever published. A fun one because it has drawn support -- and criticism -- from all circles.
SpaceShipOne Going for the Prize
Stephen's live-blogging of SpaceShipOne's historic flight was a great way to track with history being made in real time. I was really excited to learn that flight was a success by reading about it on the Speculist!
This interview with Aubrey de Grey continues to be one of our most-read entries. It holds up as both a technical introduction to Aubrey's approach to aging as well as an overview of some of the cultural/philosophical implications.
Drew more readers than any other entry in Speculist history. Basically, it's just an overlay of Singularity/Transhumanist thought on top our nation's founding document. I was pretty surpised by how well the two worked together. Apparently, others were too.
Stephen's Top Picks:
This post from Phil does as good a job as anything I've read anywhere explaining where nanotech can go.
Phil and I take a look at the top ten ways the world could end.
I've recently spent some time considering the future feasibility of a elevator from earth's surface to low earth orbit.
But a space elevator from the Moon to lunar orbit is feasible with today's technology.
And the Moon has much to offer.
Things are About to get Interesting
I've written many times about how big a role fab labs will play in the future economy. This is the post where I really stepped out on a limb with some detailed predictions.
If you found this interesting, don't miss my interview of Dr. Andrian Bowyer - the man most likely to deliver self-replicating fab technology.
This is my response to Phil's "Amazing Exponentials" speech.
More than any other, this post explains my "techno" optimism. The computation doubling trend is producing other doubling trends that deliver new technology AND feed other old and new doubling trends.
Mike's Thoughts
In the past two years, The Speculist has managed to scoop the mainstream media (here, and here, among others), interview newsmakers (Anissimov, Blackington, De Grey, Zubrin), witness the passing of eras and the dawning of new ones.
While we have discussed and debated the merits and likeliness of many projected developments in both the near and far future, we have remained firmly convinced of a single, simple, proposition:
The simple, inherent, human desires for health, for long life, for prosperity, and for greater opportunities for one's descendants to obtain both, tend to drive cultural development in the direction of producing these goods more rapidly, more readily, and at lower cost as each advance allows its beneficiaries more time and better conditions to create the next cycle of advances.
This 'spiral of progress' is the engine that drives our optimism and the wellspring of our inspiration. Every day, in small but significant ways, we "live to see it", discuss its merits, envision improvements and connections, and share all of this with our friends.
Honorable Mention
One of our favorite topics at the Speculist has been flying cars. An early post had some fun things to say on the subject. Stephen had more on flying cars here and here.
The Tiresome Argument proved to be exactly that, but we can't neglect what turned out to be one of our most controversial pieces. More here.
This piece had its origins all the way back in an old Daily Blat essay. (Scroll down to the third item, past another piece that might look kind of familiar.) This was sort of the pilot episode for the Speculist.
In his "Unintended Consequences" post, Phil points out that Humanity only has three ways to solve any problem.
Finally, two other interviews bear mentioning: the lo-ong one with John Smart and the now-famous, much shorter one with Ramona.
Old Features
When the blog started two years ago, it had five regular features:
FastForward, a precursor both to the Carnival of Tomorrow and FastForward Radio
Speaking of the Future, a series of interviews with folks who had something interesting to say about the future
Seven Questions About the Future, intended as a kind of sidebar to Speaking of the Future
Stillness, a serialized novel. Stillness ran on the site in semi-regular installments for more than a year and a half. It will be returning to the web in finished form in the near future (including the end of the story, for those who have been oh-so-patiently waiting.)
In the Future, a series of (mostly) humorous one-liner predictions. The feature continues to this day, mainly through the good offices of our UK correspondent, Robert Hinkley.
Another feature that we added later was Better All the Time, a round up of good news reflective of a world where accelerating change just might point us towards some good outcomes. (Several of the later BATT's can be found here; earlier ones here.) To some extent, the Carnival of Tomorrow has picked up where BATT left off, although I think we will probably revive it as a freestanding feature at some point.
So here's to two great years. Thanks to everyone who has played a part. See you in the future!