The Speculist

Mike Treder believes that we are approaching an era of "perilous geopolitical instability:"

when weapons of mass destruction will be more varied, more deadly, more available, cheaper to obtain, and easier to hide;

when the strength (and the ambitions) of regional powers will increase rapidly while the stabilizing might of the U.S. could be in decline;

when new technologies such as genetic engineering, robotics, nanotechnology, and possibly artificial intelligence could enable radical shifts in the balance of power;

and when global climatic conditions -- including increased frequency and severity of killer storms, droughts, infrastructure damage, crop failures, and even whole ecosystem collapses -- will contribute to growing tensions.

Now is Mike just allowing himself to get all worked up here, or should we be alarmed? Personally, I think each of these issues is serious and represents a certain amount of risk, but I also believe that each change represents new opportunities and new capabilities, including -- potentially -- new ways of dealing with these kinds of problems.

Anyhow, read the whole thing and decide for yourselves.