The Speculist

Arnold Kling, in the second in his series of essays inspired by Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, writes:

Perhaps the last unenhanced human to make a significant contribution in the field of mathematics has already been born. In twenty years, the tenure track at top university mathematics departments may consist entirely of people who depend on drugs, direct neural-computer connections, genetic modification, or a combination of all three in order to achieve high-level performance.

Some people would argue that the leading edge of this phenomenon is athletes' use of steroids. I would caution, however, that athletics is atypical in that it is a zero-sum game, and we should not automatically adopt zero-sum bioethics.

Kling is skeptical about strong AI, but less skeptical about the possibility of augmenting human potential. However, even the non-strong-AI route is fraught with potential difficulties:

Over the next twenty to forty years, these enhancement technologies are going to make their appearance. Early adopters of these inventions may achieve dramatic benefits while incurring significant risks. The long-term side-effects and unintended consequences will be necessarily uncertain.

Kling has some thoughts on who those risk-takers might be, but I don't think he tops the suggestion we made in the most recent Better All the Time.