The Speculist

The Speculist is almost relentless in its optimism. We look at the long-term future and see things getting "better all the time" and, obviously, we want to "live to see it." But there are going to be some problems along the way. Hurricane Katrina, and now Rita, are human tragedies that are exposing weaknesses in the system - our dependence on foreign energy among them.

Global warming, whether caused by man or nature, will probably have to be addressed by man.

But the short-term threat that has me most concerned is Avian Flu. There have been stories in the news for awhile about Avian Flu, but most people I talk to know very little if they've heard about it at all.

The best source of information I've found was put together by a financial services company, "BMO Nesbitt Burns." Here's the pdf link and here's Google's html conversion.

Simply put, experts, including the World Health Organization (WHO), fear an outbreak of a lethal pandemic of flu. It could break out anytime within the next few months or years in Asia and spread across the world. They are adamant that the question is not if, but when. If the disease were as vicious as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, deaths worldwide could reach or exceed 50 million, even if a successful vaccine were developed and distributed.

Just the facts:

For an influenza virus to cause a pandemic, it must meet three major criteria:

1. possess a new surface protein to which there is little or no pre-existing immunity in the human population;

2. to be able to cause illness in humans; and

3. have the ability for sustained transmission from person to person...

So far the H5N1 virus has met two of these three, but it has not yet shown the capability for sustained transmission from person to person.

H5N1 was discovered in birds in 1967. It was first known to be transmissible from birds to people in 1997.

To reach pandemic status, the virus would reassort with another influenza virus within a person, thereby learning [person-to-person] transmission.

How lethal?

In its current form, H5N1 has achieved a 100% mortality rate with chickens...

On August 5th, WHO reported that, of the 112 humans [reported to have been] infected to date, 57 have died.

That’s a 51% human mortality rate among reported cases.

The fact that its 100% lethal in chickens makes it particularly difficult to engineer a vaccine. The most common method for preparing a flu vaccine depends on the injection of chicken eggs with the virus. This method doesn't work when all the eggs die.

Sonofi-Pasteur is testing a promising vaccine. We do not know how effective it, or the antiviral drug Tamiflu will be against H5N1.

What age groups are at risk?

...the 1918 flu [another A type Influenza virus] was particularly lethal for persons aged 20-40. Apparently, this is because...their bodies' immune systems are strong. This means, paradoxically, that their bodies are forced into a fatal overdrive when attacked by a previously unknown disease. This brand-new pathogen unleashes "a classic immunologic storm...a cytokine storm...

So what do we do? As a country we ramp up production and stockpiling of vaccine and Tamiflu. We should also support the efforts of WHO and countries that are on the front line in this fight. We should learn from the mistakes that were made with Katrina at all levels of government.

As individuals, we should remain calm and optimistic. This bug will have to mutate to become transmissible between people. While it is highly likely that this mutation will happen, it is possible that it could become less lethal in the process.

It wouldn't hurt to stock up on a few things. The Department of Homeland Security has some recommendations. I also like blogger Wizbang's $50 survival kit. Keeping cash on hand is probably a good idea too. Basically, just buy more of the things you are going to use anyway.

Plan where to go if your city becomes unsafe. Have sufficient supplies on hand for several weeks if you have to be quarantined. Make sure you have supplies sufficient for whoever you may be hosting. As we've seen, disasters tend to uproot people. You may hosting friends or family from out of town.

Lastly, get informed and stay informed. Read the entire report I cited in this post. And here's an update from the same people. More here.

Also, I try to read the latest at Google News a couple of times a week.

UPDATE FROM PHIL: Randall Parker also has an interesting discussion of the potential pandemic (and Tamiflu) over on FuturePundit.